OK, I know – The Slog misread this one last time. But take a look at this extract from the ‘Greek obligations’ release put out by ISDA last night – my emphasis:

‘ ISDA members have noted that, in the current financial environment and considering the potential use of collective actions clauses by Greece, it is prudent for ISDA to be prepared in the event that a credit event is determined to have occurred by the European Determinations Committee.”

ISDA has also been sending out messages to potentially affected members telling them to get their claim paperwork in order.

My hunch is that, if the participation is between 66% and around 85% of the TOTAL (all laws) bond universe and CACs are used, ISDA will call it an event, and trigger CDS insurance. The Hedge Funds clearly feel the same, and were still buying bonds yesterday on this basis.

As  I’m now 90% certain that this will be the result, I think this is something insurance companies need to be setting a little aside for.

Related: Hedgies confident of CDS trigger