With about two months to go – and using only the most robust research samples and methodologies for guidance – the situation appears crystal clear: Biden is 7-8 points clear of Trump, with 6-7% undecided. As it stands at the moment, unless Sleepy Joe does something incalculably silly (don’t rule it out) Trump will be vacating the White House in November.
But there are three things to remember:
- The US Establishment media set has put being for Trump down there with being a bestial paedophile. Believe me, the biggest unknown in quantitative polling is whether the interviewee told the truth, or said/clicked something socially acceptable. A good guideline is that up to 5% may do something different in the privacy of the booth in Trump’s favour.
- The polls are, in the vast majority of cases, measuring the popular vote. But the President is finally elected by the State-by-State Electoral College.
- Turnout is key…..especially in the black community. After two terms of empty Obamaness, in 2016 black voters stayed at home. This cost Hillary Clinton the election.
Taking the College dimension then, we see a very different picture – far more complex, and with more to realistically play for. Here too at first, Biden appears to have the race sewn up – Joe has 144 very or fairly safe electoral votes, whereas the Donald has only 114.
However, this is a very marginal election year: 119 electoral votes could go either way, and a further 94 are deemed ‘too close to call’. These latter include the North Carolina/Georgia/Florida sweep which together account for 60 votes. If the President takes them, then the Challenger is in trouble.
On the other hand, the real biggie is (as ever) the Lone Star State. On balance, Trump has to win Texas: without it, he needs to get all the medium-marginal Democrat States’ 66 votes to switch to him. That’s a tall order.
However, the latest polls suggest that the President will take Texas comfortably.
And so we need to take a closer look at turnout.
In 2016, 2 in 5 black voters sat on their hands. The figure was highest among male blacks, a staggering 94.6% of whom would’ve voted for Clinton.
If black voters return to the polls at their 2012 levels and voting intentions, the Democratic presidential candidate “would win the Electoral College by 294-244,” according to an analysis by the Center for American Progress.
However, when Joe Biden finally chose Kamala Harris (a woman of colour) as his running mate, the carefully considered tactic backfired: evidence is now coming through to suggest that middle class white voters over 50 are disturbed by her refusal to condemn either Antifa or BLM.
Finally, of course, we must all bear in mind left field in general, and what Ghislane Maxwell might add to the pot over the next 29 days. Also never to be ignored is the ferocity of virulent bias and robotic belief in Covid19 as a real threat that typifies practically every media outlet in the US.
While not a fan of Trump as a personality, if he loses, the media, the Democrats and the Shadow State can congratulate themselves on gaining victory entirely as a result of empty accusations, propagandic lies and medical fear-mongering without any real foundation.
Less messy than blowing a President’s head off in public I suppose…but still a long haul from being the right way to run a railroad.
The Slog 