Ipsos Mori research shows public sector in crisis

Potential rise in vote defections for Labour

The latest panic at Number Ten surrounds the obvious beginnings of a public sector recession. Ed Balls’ electoral strategy is thus losing more ground.

Lord Mandelson was in high spirits yesterday evening as further bad public sector news drove Ed Balls’ ‘core heartland’ group closer to the sidelines. But Gordon is tumbling the numbers and worrying about the answers. Expected negative growth for the coming weeks will be almost wholly down to a bleak quarter ahead for the public sector, which recorded -31% (down from -13% in the previous quarter)….according to new research by IpsosMori

But for once, the Prime Minister is right to worry. Mark Serwotka, the general secretary of the Public and Commercial Services Union, has already vowed to ‘maximise strike action in March and the run-up to the election to put as much pressure on the government as possible’. This will only increase former Blairite voters’ determination to desert Brown: only certainty that the TUC would remain neutered got Blair the Essex rep vote last time.

As if this weren’t enough, Brown knows very well that Ipsos Mori has in the past shown one in five public sector voters defecting to the Tories….and that fieldwork was way before this latest jump in public sector cutbacks.

For once showing some fleetness of foot, today Conservative leader David Cameron told public sector workers they would be entitled to set up worker co-operatives to run local services…and would be free to devise their own working methods within a nationally agreed budget. The Tory leader understands the vital role public sector votes can play in an election where he will be dependent not just on Labour defections, but also straight switches to his Party.

The Slog’s Tenmole confirms that Mandy’s mood is blackening as Cameron’s plans play well in the press, and Gordon retreats into the statistics again. “He’s been doing that calculator-tapping thing all morning” claimed our resident leaker, “which is always a bad sign. And pestering people to counter the public sector job cut reports. It’s the usual chaos”.