Minimise exposure or lose your shirt

The recent article [left] in Voice Gambia here suggests that inaction by the Government – not helped by a rise in the aeroplane arrival tax incease – is leading some Gambians to ask if the Barrow regime is taking low-cost winter Sun tourism in The Gambia for granted….and could wind up ‘killing the goose that lays the golden eggs’. But the bigger picture is far more global and complex than one sector and one government in one country. What we’re already experiencing at the end of 2024 is the start of irreversible reset.

In June this year, I predicted [based on US, EU, north European and African traveller research] that not just tourist arrivals on the Smiling Coast but also per-tourist expenditure would experience a drop. This has now so obviously come to pass, it’s an undeniable reality here: every restaurateur and hospitality/accommodation supplier reports fewer visitors and lower income levels. There’s far more to this than government policy: a global decline in the post-Covid tourism recovery rate is being caused by rising energy costs, economic uncertainties, East European/Middle Eastern conflicts and/or political instability, rising destination inflation and – last but not least – greed among those who think it’s a smart idea to raise charges, lay service staff off, provide poor service and skimp on product quality [be that food, pool maintenance, taxi vehicle servicing or safari tour content].

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Charging more and giving less in a world where the more blue-collar tourists sense that their employer is facing stalled economic growth (and those working in the First World professions have worked out that Sovereign debt is now completely out of control) doesn’t add up to sound business practice or marketing reality. On the contrary, it smacks of denialism, panic and an innately inflationary mindset.

What some people are doing to raise prices and reduce quality here in The Gambia, for example, is indulging in brainless greed when they should be raising their game.

But it’s the broader picture I’m painting here that is the important one: regardless of all the mendacious attempts by the US Fed, the White House, the EU sprouts in Brussels, Hong Kong, Beijing, Canberra, Moscow, Frankfurt and Westminster to put out press releases saying that inflation has now “topped out” and the Sovereign debt mess is “easing” smart citizens from all social classes in 80+ nations don’t believe them. And the graph [left] shows that they’re absolutely right to ignore the balm.

Global consumer confidence is slipping. What we’re witnessing here is the beginning of the end of carefree citizen spending. The World recession is already under way, and no amount of BS is going to stop it any time soon.