Lord Ashcroft has poured money into researching and merchandising support in the key marginals.

The definitive UK polling report website today came out in support of the contrarian Slog view that the Tories are still on target to form a majority Government.

150 Labour/Conservative marginal seats are showing a consistent swing of 12% from Labour to the Conservatives, a lot higher than the swing recorded in the country as a whole – and enough on its own to give David Cameron a working majority.

Careful analysis and projection of this level of swing in the marginals suggests the Conservatives would take all but a handful of the New Labour seats on their top 200 target list. Once again, we suggest that the New Labour ‘comeback’ (while it may give Mandy a warm feeling in the trousers) is irrelevant under a constituency-based electoral system.