The National Centre for Social Research has published data confirming our view that the abstention rate will be high at the General Election

New research (2009) from the NCSR supports The Slogger’s contention that abstainers will be the biggest factor in the Election. The study’s key points are:

1. In just eight years, the percentage feeling that everyone has a duty to vote fell from 68% to 58%. By the same token, those feeling ‘it isn’t really worth it’ have leapt from under 1 in 10 to just under 1 in 5.

2. There has been a steep decline in people’s commitment to one political party. Fully 27% of respondents now say they have no affiliation. (When I was at University, the figure was 6.8% – as measured by the celebrated psephologist Jean Blondel.)

3. In 2005, slightly over a third of people under 24 voted. The new study suggests that they are also less likely to vote than people of the same age 20 years ago. The desertion of politics by our youthful electorate is perhaps the greatest indictment of political mudslinging, spin and the superficial ‘gesture’ approach to socio-economic problems.

Abstainers (and especially the young) record a strong bias towards the Labour Party. Hence the Slog’s continuing belief that, although the Tory lead has narrowed, it is considerably bigger than the pollsters suggest – an inaccuracy exacerbated by most polls’ continuing stubbornness on the subject of marginal seat focus.