The irony of First Past the Post is that, in close-run elections, it gives power to the oddest people.

I had the most awful thought while slogging through the three new opinion polls late last night. As some of you may have read already, a combination of disgust, apathy and electoral maths is producing a rather high ‘Others’ figure at 17%. My theory is that a lot of this is UKIP support.

It’s why my interest in the Buckingham election remains high – in that a victory (or even a very good showing) for UKIP leader Nigel Farage there will be a further fillip for his Party.

But another thought haunts me like the fear of the mad person sitting next to you on the bus: that when all is done and dusted, the bloke pictured above might wind up with the casting vote in a Parliamentary tie. I cannot think of a better argument for moving to properly democratic proportional representation with all speed.

The prospect is highly unlikely: I still believe there will not be a hung Parliament after the May election, and a Libdem ‘balance’ group would only have to defer to one UKIP MP under the most bizarre circumstances. But it does show you what’s possible – remember the influence of a tiny DUP Party in the 1970s.

Some of Farage’s ideas on Europe are sound and benignly populist. But yelling at Belgians is not very good form – and more to the point, as a politician he is just as slippery, mendacious and power-mad as the rest of them.

Cameron needs to rethink his stubborn resistance to electoral change: he’s beginning to sound like some sort of Shires Tory in 1832. Not only is his support for FPTP blatantly protectionist, it lacks a credible basis of justification. Somebody needs to take on the Wellington role and change his mind.