THE ANTI-BERCOW SENTIMENT AMONG MPs – AND DITHERING EU FINANCE MINISTERS – ARE PLAYING INTO UKIP’S HANDS IN BUCKINGHAM

The Slogger retains an interest in the Buckingham election, not least because it is yet another chance to prove the commentariat wrong about something. In the last week or so, however,it has begun to dawn on on or two scriveners that John Bercow is in quite a bit of career trouble. This is not before time, as it’s certainly occurred to the lad himself.

“You’re missing the point” a friend told me last week, “it’s not about bloody Buckingham – it’s about his behaviour in the House”. I’m not sure the True Blue folk of Aylesbury & Bucks would enjoy being referred to as bloody anything, but anyway I remain convinced that my chum is the one who’s got it wrong: it’s not about either Buckingham or the House: the two simply aren’t mutually exclusive.

As for his national image, it’s been a bad week for Bercow. Simon Carr’s sketch in The Independent pointed up the little man’s unpopularity rather elegantly. The House apparently finds Bercow bombastic, belligerent, verbose and already rather above himself.

In turn, the Tories have been suspicious about him right from the off. They accuse him of being coached and prompted by Labour – and of allowing that side to talk about Ashcroft, but not their side to talk about Unite. Yah-boo-sucks is all well and good, but the one big reason JB is under the microscope and the cosh is the ever-present fear of a hung Parliament. For Mr Speaker’s rulings become very important if and when that happens.

‘MPs plot to oust Bercow’ said yesterday’s Evening Standard. This is nothing new from the Standard, and nor is the one-woman hate-campaign being hurled in his direction by Nadine Dorries. But if observers imagine this has no effect on the electors in Buckingham, then I should advise them that the area does have full access to the media, and has done for some time.

Bercow was looking very worried indeed last Tuesday, as he “worked the room like a madman” according to a local who was present at the Rotary Club do. Canvassing moles (among those resentful of Tory bigwigs demanding ‘Let’s not be beastly to Bercow’) confirmed again this week that Farage is performing well in at least two areas. And last night a senior Tory there confided he thought Bercow could easily lose.

“The EU finance thing looks more like a mess with every day” said one Farage worker, “And Nigel says what he thinks. A lot of ordinary people round here like that”.

Farage in turn recognises the threat from new entrant John Stevens, a candidate with a past more chequered than a Grand Prix flag. Stevens has hopped from one Party to another over the years and, as a former Tory, machinated somewhat unpleasantly against Michael Howard at Folkestone in 2005. As a one-time pro-Europe MEP and rejected Libdem member, he will no doubt attract others of that ilk who can’t stand Bercow…and do not find Cameron’s right-wing connections in the EU to their taste.

So it’s perhaps not surprising that the Farage camp is seriously considering lodging a complaint to the electoral commission about John Stevens. We understand the basis of the complaint is Stevens funnelling his election expenses through an organisation (Buckingham Campaign for Democracy) before he’s actually declared and been nominated.

Is this just local constituency tittle-tattle? Not really. As I tried (in vain) to explain to a tabloid drone two weeks ago, the more candidates there are in Buckingham picking off discrete interest groups who don’t like John Bercow, the worse his chances become – because in a normal Speaker election, they would either have abstained, or observed the protocol of supporting him.

The flurry of press reports suggesting that Bercow will – win or lose – be deposed as Speaker afterwards by MPs are playing right into the hands of popular local independents like former High Sheriff Patrick Phillips.

“What’s the point of voting for a chap who’ll soon be out of a job anyway?” said one eminent constituent to me this morning, “Nobody likes Bercow – the MPs don’t like him, and we don’t like him. Not much of a recommendation for a Speaker of the House of Commons, is it?”