Although the opinion polls remain incoherently steady, it’s beginning to look increasingly like events are moving away from the Government. The overnight revelation of more New Labour corruption – and in particular the alleged direct involvement of Business Minister Lord Mandelson in perverting the course of legislation – will do the Brown regime no good at all. The trade union Unite seems determined to kick as many own-goals as possible past Number Ten. And as we suggested early last week, the opinion of key overseas institutions and commentators is hardening in relation to the UK’s debt.

Briefly on Thursday, it looked as though one set of poorly interrogated figures might change market opinion about Chancellor Darling, but he remains as unpopular as ever in the City – and widely perceived to be in the hands of a clique determined to produce an election-winning Budget. We still believe anyway that the idea of the Government being able credibly to ‘stick to its gradual approach’ to deficit reduction defies both logic and the available numbers. Whitehall sources have been stressing for a day or two now that the Budget will have little or nothing exciting in it at all. In that context, it is the job of George Osborne to create some – in the form of clear, firm reality. This is his big chance, and he mustn’t fluff it. Trimming and fudging will not do: the Shadow Chancellor must convince the nation and the media that such a Budget must and will be a disaster.

Another Government own-goal is unquestionably the decision to give Tony Blair a larger role in the campaign than originally envisaged. The glitter has gone from Blair now: clearly guilty of grubby conflicts of interest and ravenous money-making since his departure, he is also thought by a majority of voters to have lied to the Chilcot Inquiry. The Slogger still thinks it possible that the Blair/Bush correspondence could yet leak out: but whether it does or not, we are still left asking the question, “What on earth has this bloke got to do with anything any more,and why is he here now?” The answer – I’m told – is that Blair will focus on Cameron’s failure ‘to change the real Conservative Party’. One suspects that rather more voters will look at the faction and graft-riddled Labour Party Blair did manage to change, and draw their own conclusions.

Predictably, The Observer has concocted with the Libdems a non-story about Vince Cable being virtually Chancellor in waiting. The evidence of a concerted effort on this by the LibLeft media axis is demonstrated in turn by John Rentoul’s piece in The Independent – ‘For Vince as Chancellor, vote Labour’.

And that really does begin to look like the Emperor minus his clothes: a Government clutching at a former Leader who isn’t even a Parliamentarian any more – and the Treasury spokesman of another Party.

In conclusion, I would offer the informed view that Nick Clegg (no matter what pro Libdem papers think) is even less likely to want to go anywhere near the Labour Party after a week in which Union leaders have gone back through a thirty-year time warp – and four of the Party’s MPs have been caught doing sleazy deals yet again.

My intelligence is that Mr Clegg knows the Tories are going to win, that’s he’s going to lose at least ten seats, and that after all there isn’t going to be a hung Parliament. Once again, this is Cameron’s election to lose.

UPDATE AT 12.35 SUNDAY: James Macintyre at the New Statesman is also broadcasting on-message with ‘Vince for Chancellor!’