Moodys by name and moody by nature as credit agency issues more warnings to Obama’s Washington.
Every major high-profile credit-ranking agency has to walk a tightrope between letting sovereign debt slide, and prophecying doom in a manner that becomes self-fulfilling. And although very few credit managers are thought to be socialist, it’s also important to be seen staying clear of politics.
This partly explains why Moodys seems a bit all over the place at the moment. The company’s decision at dawn today to point a finger at Obama financing will be seen by many as a direct intervention in the post Health Bill passage debate, but on the other hand, deregulated credit markets are increasingly leading agency opinion with action: Proctor & Gamble, Warren Buffet, and Johnson & Johnson are all, as of this week, borrowing money more cheaply than their Government. So the warning is both well-meant and well-made.
Sources close to other agencies, however, think their sector isn’t being done any favours by Moodys occasional equivocation: Big M gave a slightly more favourable opinion on UK debt last week (‘don’t get involved in elections’) but is now warning a US whose deficit is less serious than Britain’s.
“New Labour needs no encouragement to hold off on the medicine” said one Europe-based north American yesterday, “There are lots of folks right now who think Fitch adopts a tougher and more consistent tone to the PIGS”. (The PIGS are Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, although almost all currency traders and credit managers now include the UK in this list).
As the Slog has observed several times, reality is intruding increasingly into Old World debtor nations. The fact that this includes Germany but excludes France, for example, goes along way to explaining the widening rift in their relationship of late. The Tories are carrying the torch for this view in the UK, but uncertainly at times; they must go for broke and land some serious punches on Darling’s Budget this Wednesday.
As for the US, many there have grasped how costly the Health reform is going to be. But only a few of them are in government.
Moodys Investors’ Service predicts America will spend more on debt service as a percentage of revenue this year than any other top-rated country except the U.K. America will use about 7 percent of taxes for debt payments in 2010, and almost 11 percent in 2013. This moves it ‘substantially’ closer to losing its AAA rating, the company’s sovereign debt boss Pierre Cailleteau insisted.





