In the sixth and seventh opposing opinions to come out of Berlin in a week, the Bundesbank this morning offered the opinion that it may well be illegal for the IMF to give Greece bailout money. But then later in the day, Frau Merkel said Germany would only take part in a Greek bailout if the IMF didn’t deliver. This sort of stuff makes the Brown/King relationship seem like a full-on homosexual love-fest.
Effectively, Germany has started behaving as if it won the war. Without doubt it has won the peace, but enough is enough: either this is a European Union, or it’s the Grossdeutscher Reich. Most of us here in Slogger’s Roost would prefer neither, but the latter would be vastly preferable: not only more efficient, but also infinitely less corrupt.
Hans-Peter Friedrich, floor leader of the Bavarian Christian Social Union, alliance party to Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, said it was good to see the Chancellor standing her ground “and not letting herself be pushed into concessions.” Friedrich is riding a wave of opinion polls in Germany showing massive opposition to the country taking part in a Greek rescue.
Meanwhile, the Sarkozy administration (still reeling from crushing local election defeats last week) is between a rock and a hard place. Although its socialist opponents would in theory back the plight of ordinary Greek workers, the French voter on the Rue de la Gare has even less enthusiasm than the Germans for helping any foreigner with anything, least of all French money. But being a rock-solid supporter of the Union as a help-each-other family, President Sarkozy is heading for an appalling loss of face. He will have to toe the Berlin line in the best way that he can.
Not even the Greeks can gain from any of this. As it seems clear (for the next few hours at least) that the Bundestag wants the IMF to make the problem go away, the IMF has the Athens government by the short and curlies….with no other lender seriously in the running.
POSTSCRIPT: UniCredit has alerted investors in a client note that Britain is at serious risk of a bond market and sterling debacle and faces even more intractable budget woes than Greece. (See good piece by Pritchard-Evans here)





