
Today’s Torygraph paranoia on the subject of YouGov is a classic case of a little learning being a dangerous thing. I can assure you as a professional market researcher that the Telegraph don’t know what they’re talking about.
As The Slog has noted several times previously, the major polls NOT using pc interviewee-interface are in my view understating the Tory lead, but that’s nothing to do with weighting. Weighting is (as Peter Kellner rightly points out) a standard way of ironing out random-sample inaccuracy. The real problem with the older-style pollsters is that they aren’t weighting enough for abstention, and not taking enough account of previous voting behaviour. Both these things (plus the use of personal not pc interviews)explain why YouGov puts the Opposition’s lead at around 5%, whereas Angus Reid calls it nearer 12%. My money remains on Angus Reid.
The story is featured in today’s paper, and headed by a large and rather unflattering shot of Peter Kellner. Neither of these is justified: the story is a sloppy, half-baked series of innuendos worthy of the Independent at its worst.
PS For an objective view that makes me look like a C-Grade biology GCSE pass in this field, take a look at the UK Polling Report site this morning. As it happens, they’re reporting a 7% Conservative lead….on YouGov.




