Readers of the latest quarterly economic growth statistics need to approach them with care. Although the Government will doubtless trumpet the 0.2% growth versus Q4 2009, the year-on-year versus Q1 is the more exact comparison. This figure is worrying for two reasons:

1. Q1 2009 was at the lower depths of the recession.
2. Today’s figures for Q1 2010 versus that period are 0.3% DOWN.

In real terms, there is thus no solid recovery: why would there be? But politically, this is relatively neutral information. It shows that the Government’s long-term strategy isn’t working, but also enables them to insist yet again that early cuts in spending will destroy this fragile recovery…which doesn’t exist. The inner workings of Lord Mandelson’s mind are labyrinthine indeed.

Commonsense in another more normal mind insists otherwise: an economy shrinking in the long term means the debt repayment projections must be wrong – and thus revised downwards. This is the real issue.

Nick Clegg is unlikely to mention it, Alistair Darling certainly won’t mention it, and Gordon Brown will lie about it. David Cameron doesn’t understand it, and George Osborne is only speaking these days when he’s spoken to.

Another normal day in UK New Politics.