In a final attempt to ensure that Greece will play the rest of its game against insolvency downhill all the way, Jean-Claude Trichet’s European Central Bank last night suspended the minimum credit rating required for Greek government-backed assets used in ECB liquidity-providing operations. Cutting the jargon, the Bank has effectively given the Athens Government a blank cheque to keep on converting its own bonds into Euros from the ECB ‘until further notice’.
Not only is this a major (albeit predictable) about-turn by Trichet, it is a move that can only make things much worse in the long run. Spain’s banks called the move ‘very encouraging’ – as indeed it is for the Spanish, given their parlous situation comprises both busted balance sheets and a staggering 20% rate of unemployment. But this crazy decision is the financial equivalent of giving a hopeless alcoholic patient a crate of vodka – and inviting all the other inmates to the party.
A few questions for M. Trichet as he arrives at his desk this morning:
1. This may well encourage a few more headcases to buy Greek bonds, but the more they sell, the bigger the crock the EU will have to bail out when things finally go belly-up.
2. How do you think the sudden arrival of endless cash is going to play with the trade unions currently torching the nation’s cars?
3. Why did you describe the Greek situation yesterday as a ‘special case one-off’?
4. Are you going to offer this lifeline to Spain, Portugal and Ireland as well?
5. As an EU member, can we have some too please?
6. Given over half the EU membership is currently running a deficit, will they all get this lifeline? If not, why not?
7. Where will the money come from for that – are you going to start printing the stuff?
8. How do you think this is going to play in Germany?
9. You just gave the bank-keys to a spendaholic – how do you think that’s going to help?
10. What happened to ‘not rewarding fiscal indiscipline’?
Whether the ECB has an answer to any of those questions, the die is now cast. This can only result in eventual catastrophe: not only must it accelerate the downward pressure on the Euro (unless currency traders are even dafter than I thought they were) it has brought forward the demise of the Eurozone – and added to the problems storing up to bedevill the EU the day after tomorrow.




