Gillard won the Labour leadership largely because Kevin Rudd did his usual quota of daft things, but primarily because the mining industry didn’t like his super-tax on their activities. And The Slog has learned that she achieved the necessary shift in Union support away from Rudd with the help of a large mining Union – the coal industry’s CFMEU.

The CFMEU has been an enthusiastic supporter of Gillard’s Fair Work policies, and has been intimately involved in drawing up a new award for the coal industry. Gillard was also a prime mover in this: she now has powerful contacts in both unions and management – a good thing to have, given that Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter.

Where she is less well-liked – in fact, positively feared – is among the more lucrative mining sectors for Australia’s export income. Without bringing them along with some kind of tax, the 2010/11 Budget for the country isn’t going to make any sense.

“She’s very, very clever” an Opposition source told us, “she quietly moved herself into a block-vote position in coal, so Rudd just didn’t have a base of support any more. Gillard will push through a deal on coal and coalseam gas, and leave the other miners [the sector, not the Unions] looking like hardline nasties. Then she’ll call a snap election”.

A media source based in the Pacific rim confirmed the plan, saying