CHINA: AGBANK LAUNCH & ECONOMIC GROWTH NUMBERS VINDICATE SLOG FORECASTS.

The latest developments in the emerging China outlook debate will only add to bearishness

Agricultural Bank of China’s shares rose a mere 2.2% from the launch price in Shanghai overnight. The gain was far lower than the 10% target set by Beijing, and confirmed the view of many commentators that enthusiasm for Sino-financial flotations is waning. Opinion remains divided over the reason for the CPR regime’s sudden desire to pull in cash from the markets when China itself is posting massive surpluses.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy decelerated in the April-June period. It fell 1.5 points to a growth rate of 10.3% during the same 2009 period…adding fuel to The Slog’s doubts about how well China is really doing.

The numbers might seem unremarkable given that Beijing has put the brakes on the housing market and public spending. But the 2010 month-on-month data released today suggest that the economy could be slowing more than the Government would like: production output growth fell to 13.7% in June, compared with 16.5% during May.

Chinese spokesmen soothed any fears with talk of ‘helping our economy avoid overheating and assisting in the transformation of China’s economic model’. It would be nice to know what that model is, but you can’t have everything.

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