ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Please can we turn off the Short Wave radio?

The best approach for those wanting to protect their wealth is to ignore the media, and stick to long-term likelihoods.
‘European stock markets opened up 0.8 per cent – following a positive session in Asia and a solid close in the US on Friday – as traders welcome satisfactory Chinese economic data and news that regulators meeting in Switzerland have agreed a deal on banks’ reserves….London equities made further progress on Monday, with financial stocks dominating the list of leading shares as traders welcomed the Basel III reforms. There were also hopes for fresh bid activity…European banks are borrowing again in a newly optimistic mood of confidence…’

The three extracts from FT articles shown above were posted between 8.30 and 9.06 BST this morning….less than half an hour into the ‘day’.

They shared an FT front-page with references to comment columns suggesting untold gloom….because banking reform has once again been fudged.

Forget whether the traders buying equities are right or wrong, there’s no point trying to divine the motives of amphetamine-fuelled sheep: why are the media persisting in this regular bollocks about Happy Days are Here Again?

We are still in an environment where the banking business and governments are close to desperate. I shall be posting later about some further information regarding the wobbly nature of things at Deutsche Bank. Some of the stunts being pulled (by almost everyone) go beyond alarming and into near-suicidal….because these people have nothing to lose now.

A quick example. During the stress tests, Barclays said they were into sovereign bonds for £1.4 billion. Then six weeks later, the bank let slip that Italy alone owes it £6 billion. This morning the Wall St Journal carried this piece:

‘Barclays PLC says its disclosure of sovereign-debt holdings in July’s European bank stress tests didn’t exclude any government bonds it was holding in its trading books….That is a shift for the U.K. bank. Officials in late August and early September told the Journal that Barclays had excluded certain sovereign bonds that it was holding in its trading account…’

Can you believe that? Pure Basil Fawlty: “Oh, that six billion we haven’t got from Silvio yet….aah, I see what you mean now….right, no – that wasn’t in our trading account as such, no….except that, just a minute, no -I tell a lie, it was. All the time. Completely overlooked it. Well there you are. Hahahahahaha.” Close up on Sybil looking derisive. Enter Manuel left, announcing he can’t get the Spanish pensions office to answer his calls.

Here’s another corker of a press release from the EU Commission featured six minutes ago in the New York Times:

‘The European Commission says the economy across the EU is recovering faster than expected and will likely grow by a solid 1.8% this year, driven by surprisingly strong domestic demand.’

Note the word ‘domestic’ there. Domestic demand for what – euthanasia? It certainly isn’t foreign demand, so why is it important? But fear not, it’s a solid 1.8% – as opposed to that flakey Christine Lagarde 3.4% French growth that turned into 2% within weeks.

The daily-focused media and the bourse drones don’t know what they’re doing – so ignore them, and stick to the likes of Wolfgang Munchau – the Eurointelligence Bear-seer who is far more likely to (a) tell you the truth and (b) be right.

In 1933, FDR closed all the banks and the NY stock exchange. Were he alive in 2010, he’d close all the news services.