Boris bowls Cameron & Osborne a googly

London Mayor uses Telegraph, Greek debate to bait Camerlot

“A week is a long time in politics,” said Harold Wilson famously. He also said – much more accurately in my view – that in politics, “the three things that count are timing, timing and timing”.

This morning, Boris Johnson is lifted out of the commentator columns of the online Daily Telegraph, and into the lead story. He’s done this by saying what everyone privately thinks: that the Greeks should be allowed to default (and leave the euro) – but significantly, that Britain should refuse to take part in the bailout.

It’s a masterstroke of timing. Boris knows that today, George Osborne must go to Luxembourg and come away with, at the very least, an assurance that the ESFM euro-bailout fund will not be used to help the Greeks – and thus Britain will remain uninvolved. And in terms of what appears on the press briefings afterwards, the Chancellor probably stands a decent chance of getting this.

But it will not be the reality. Slog sources in Brussels insist that officials there have already told the British that the ESFM will become necessary in order to save Greece from bankruptcy. All Osborne can hope to do is put off the evil moment, and deny the inevitability of that moment. Johnson is gambling – and I think it’s a good call – that events will accelerate in the markets and ratings agencies, and that within months at most Britain will have to pay up.

This would damage Osborne’s reputation as a Chancellor irreparably. And it could very well make David Cameron’s position more than slightly difficult.

Two obstacles stand in the London Mayor’s way – apart from the fact that he hasn’t got a seat in the Commons any more. The first is that Cameron might simply agree with his maverick rival and stand firm on the Greek bailout. He won’t, because the prospect of a split Party terrifies him. And second of course, the Tories’ LibDem allies will back support for the euro to the hilt, because they’re mad. So at first glance, Boris might appear to be up a gum tree.

But this is a medium to long game being played here. Johnson may well lose the Mayoral election. I think if the Camerlot then tried to ban his selection as a Parliamentary candidate, they really would be playing with fire….among the very MPs Dave wants to keep onside.

Boris Johnson’s political instinct is telling him that now is the time to set the ball rolling. He correctly thinks in private that the eurozone at least will implode, and the UK’s economic recovery is no longer possible given a weak private sector and a diluted cuts programme that isn’t cutting public sector spending at all. Despite what the polls say, he thinks the public is ready for some straight, right-wing talking.

Johnson is a revolutionary and ruthless politician. He will bide his time. But be in no doubt, as of this morning, his hat is in the ring.