Er…..

For a blogger on limited resources, I’ve learned that on mega-speed news days, it’s best to watch, wait and then phone. Also yesterday, we had four great friends for lunch, and – just like in the old days – it lasted until 6.45 pm.

Reflection at this point is good – but not for long. Murdoch is a slippery eel coated in jello: knock him down and he’ll bite you in the balls. However, reflecting on that alone is useful.

Closing the NotW was a bold stroke designed to cut costs and look penitent, but it is already backfiring. The men and women of Wapping were very unhappy last night – and considerably more angry than frightened. Within twelve hours, a loosely-affiliated group out to get Brooks has emerged. The evidence to damn her has always been there: what James Murdoch has just done is to give a newsroom full of hacks a motive.

Murdoch Jr may feel safe in New York (getting him extradited could be a lengthy process, I’m told – although I don’t know why) but here too, a little thinking goes a long way. Rupe clearly saw this coming – he is if nothing else a man with foresight – and thus shipped him to the States. The Slog spotted this at the time – as indeed it spotted the purchase of Liz Murdoch’s Shine for what it was: a ready-made alternative CEO should Brooks or James also fall.

What perhaps we didn’t conclude – but surely must now – is that it is very probable both executives admitted their guilt to the patriarch months ago. Otherwise, why else make the preparations he did? The trail is steadily leading back to Sydney; one wonders who will shop the old boy, and why. But it looks increasingly likely that someone will.

We should also focus very clearly on the reality of Newscorp behaviour, and reject all the legal bollocks about ‘full cooperation’. The Wapping Liars have hidden emails, lied about them being lost. Coulson obviously perjured himself at the Tommy Sheridan trial – as a result of which a perhaps innocent man is in prison. Only last week, says Sheridan’s lawyer, reptiles at Sue Grabbit & Runne were still blocking his perfectly legal request for the release of this evidence from Newscorp. This is conspiracy to block and pervert the course of justice, but more generally, we should bear one thing in mind: all these people are on auto-lie, 24/7. Nothing they say or claim cam be believed.

My final reflective point is a crucial one: remember what happened over the MPs’ expenses scandal. When it broke in May 2009, it was the scandal of the century.  There was fury and outrage. There were promises of reform. There were admissions of wrongdoing.

Just three of the buggers went to prison – out of 649. Two years on, the Watchdog appointed afterwards is still regularly encountering ridiculous expense claims. Late last week, a row was about to boil over because MPs once again wanted to put in bills without back-up. To keep his Party in order, within weeks of his ‘election’ as PM, David Cameron watered down the original disciplinary procedures.

I doubt very much if the expenses scandal achieved anything of lasting value, beyond making a name for the Maily Telegraph’s editor Tony Gallagher. This could so easily happen with Hackgate. Concerted and continued pressure is the only viable approach: every kop-out, every compromise, and every alibi must be challenged, ridiculed and hounded back out into the open. There must be no hiding place for anyone, high or low. (The main problem these days is that, increasingly, they are both the same thing).

And so to some informed speculation. As The Slog has opined before, such conjecture is a perfectly valid tool for any commentator. Sometimes it teases wriggly things out from under stones, but mainly it makes observers think about the broader ramifications of immediate events.

Do not, for instance, let any senior Tories convince you that the Party is right behind Camerlot. Quite a few big beasts will now come forward to bury Caesar rather than praise him. The entire episode has become a disaster for Cameron, about which he is about to give a news conference. There are already mutterings that he will have to go.

The Newscorp price is in bad shape, and at least one BSkyB director now thinks Murdoch is far too toxic to consider as an owner – even if he could afford it. He is in deep doo-doo without BSkyB’s cash flow. And of course, he bankrolls the Premiership. And a lot of clubs in the Premiership have pretty silly business models.

Last but not least, the Met. More detail on this anon – but Stephenson is still blithely talking about one or two rotten apples. The man is an idiot, but I’d imagine he has a little black book to protect himself if necessary.