This is the exclusive and permanent answer to our economic problems – albeit with an emphasis on the eurozone’s current embarrassment – as devised by our top brains here at Sloggers’ Roost.
Let me begin by saying that, without a huge amount of artificial and costly help, Greek default is a 100% certainty. It has been since the Spring. The only question now is how that certainty should be managed.
The media tell us there are five options available as a means of ending the crisis: debt forgiveness, a haircut for the banks, the issuance of a eurobond, one big ECB/EU/IMF bailout now, and just letting default happen.
But as always, the media are merely trotting out the various sectional interests of the concerned parties. They’re not separate (optional) solutions at all – but rather, elements of a mutually inclusive whole.
Four steps remain between us and a binding solution to our dilemma today. They are:
Step 1: A manageable Haircut for the lenders. There is something we can calculate and carry out right this minute. Tot up the total global banking exposure to Greek default – direct, indirect, insurance and so forth – and then tell them to share out the cost of a 50% haircut on sums outstanding, and write it off. This reduces the Greek debt burden by half. If they’re as safe as they say they are, not a single bank would fall – but any bank left in a seriously exposed position would be assisted fully by the appropriate central bank.
Step 2: Affordable ClubMed Debt forgiveness. We could do the following after Step 1: ask each nation with a large and developed GDP to chip in a free gift to the Eurozone peripheral debtor Governments. This wipes out all their debts, including the 50% already taken off the Greek total. Using relative per capita GDP + debt of the donor countries as the criteria for size of contribution, most of the gifting nations would barely feel a thing.
Step 3: Closely monitored Stimulation for the EU as a whole, jointly funded from the EFSF as it exists, eurobond borrowing offering the lenders joint and several guarantees, and a 2% surtax on the pretax profits of all multinational companies with an office operating in the European Union.
Step 4: Tear up the EU Constitution and start again on the following simple principles: (a) a pr-list-system elected sovereign body with sole legislative powers as allowed by the People (b) abolition of the Commission (c) an Executive chosen by majority from the legislature, but with sovereignty in three areas only – fiscal probity, energy, and banking. The EU would lose the right to disburse funds on a Union-wide basis (d) a President chosen by direct vote across the Union, with a final run-off between two candidates should no majority emerge (e) all existing internal EU industrial, agricultural, and trade arrangements to be scrapped in favour of open and free competition (f) complete freedom to secede from the eurozone with 12 months notice, but in doing so each State so choosing must have the majority support of its citizens, and leave the EU in perpetuity (g) All elements of and changes to the Constitution to be decided on the basis of a 60% majority popular vote across the Union…including any proposed additional membership.
Steps 3 and 4 are, amazingly, going to take a little longer than the first two to enact. But there are many features to recommend this solution.
First and foremost, everybody with something to gain in the longer term gets to pay their share. This seems fair given that every country on the planet and most of its commercial institutions have a lot to lose if the EU implodes. The exception to this is the taxpayer, who has suffered enough already.
Second, in return for being forgiven now, all eurozone debtors thereafter face an onerous regime of sovereign fiscal and credit monitoring by the EU Executive. This not only reassures the lenders doing business with the EU, it also forces the ClubMeds to either play it straight or bugger off.
Third, the single currency has a real chance of working properly at a truthful valuation, operating within a genuine free-trade area based on the realities of 2011, not 1956. Members of it also have the flexibility to leave, but cannot do so lightly.
Fourth, the bloated, corrupt and unelected elements of the EU are abolished at a stroke, as well as the Federalist powers of the elected officers being severely curtailed.
And last but most important, the People – and they alone – get to elect everyone who matters.
The advantages, of course, are what will ensure that those running the show smile politely and do nothing about any of these ideas….even though I’d hazard a guess that they would attract the support of the citizenry.
And equally, Steps 1 & 2 of the crisis resolution have an icicle in Hell’s chance of being adopted….even though they would reduce the eventual cost of EU meltdown (and further falling dominoes) by something in the region of 95%.
Unfortunately, globalist banks like to maintain the myth that reneging on debt is fatal, national governments would rather rattle sabres than solve problems, multinational companies prefer shareholder dividends to the common good, most bureaucrats would rather do anything than learn to swim, and politicians have never ever once in history reduced the amount of power they have over others.
“It’s the species, stupid”, as I keep on trying to remind everyone. But in truth, my criticism is somewhat unfair. About 5% of the species are a pain in the backside, and cause 95% of the problems. The rest of us could be kept in line (while in full possession of liberty and a democratic say in things) by a proper culture of morals and ethics. So a judicious mixture of shooting the arseholes and rebuilding the culture is probably what’s required.




