John Ward November 2, 2011 Merkel & Sarkozy fly to meet determined Papandreou

GREEK CRISIS BREAKING: ANOTHER PAPANDREOU ALLY PURGES ARMED FORCES AS PM GETS CABINET BACKING

In what has clearly been a very well-planned operation, Papandreou and his allies are putting the EU to shame

Following last night’s surprise purge of the Greek armed forces by Papandreou confidante Panos Beglitis, news has just broken that the Greek Cabinet has backed the Prime Minister’s call for a referendum. The confidence motion on Friday remains in place. It is now becoming clear that George Papandreou is restricting all the key moves to his very closest inner circle, but mainstream foreign media are still floundering as to an explanation of his game-plan. This morning, Merkel and Sarkozy are flying in to Cannes to meet with a member State leader whose action and determination contrasts starkly with their indecisive dithering. They should watch out for any grassy knolls.

In an astonishing and coordinated move, last night the Greek defence minister fired all the Armed Forces heads. These were General Ioannis Giagkos, Lieutenant General Fragkos Fragkoulis, Lieutenant General Vasilios Klokozas, and Vice-Admiral Dimitrios Elefsiniotis. First (unconfirmed) reports from Athens suggest that Papendreou feared another military coup, but other sources asserted that the extraordinary meeting of the Government Council of Foreign Affairs and Defence (KYSEA), which comprises the prime minister and other key cabinet members, had delegated the organisational task to defence minister Panis Beglitis – like interior minister Haris Kastanidis, a close ally and friend of the Prime Minister. They also confirm that the meeting was small, secret and scheduled.

It has now emerged that in fact Angelo Venizelos was kept out of the loop on all the recent developments. He collapsed and entered hospital complaining of stomach pains yesterday.

Last night The Slog revealed how the Greek leader has been planning a new referendum law for some time with close ally and one-time victim of the Colonels’ regime Mr Kastanidis. Yesterday, the eurocrat smear merchants were briefing to the effect that George Papandreou had gone off his head. This morning, he looks rather more like a tough gambler with a cool head to me. But his objectives remain the subject of conjecture.

The Merkozy contingent flies into Cannes for an emergency meeting with the Greek Prime Minister this morning. Papandreou told the media, before leaving for Cannes ten minutes ago (11.10 am EUTime), that a referendum on Europe’s rescue package “will confirm the nation’s membership of the euro” as he stuck to plans to hold the vote amid signs his government may collapse. He also confirmed that he had the unanimous backing of his Cabinet for the referendum.

Learn more about The Slog

57Comments

Add yours

1

marcjf on November 2, 2011 at 7:36 pm

I’m no expert but if this line of thought is fruitful I’d say face.

Can’t admit the whole set up is doomed but don’t want to be the one that says it?

Do the germans have a “stupid economics gene”??? No. Then why are they doing what they are doing?

LikeLike
2

Antonio on November 2, 2011 at 6:38 pm

http://libertarianforce.blogspot.com

LikeLike
3

John Ward on November 2, 2011 at 5:19 pm

I think her idea is to save it with her on board, as it were.

LikeLike
4

John Ward on November 2, 2011 at 5:16 pm

Henry Rose
This analysis makes eminent sense for me. I think Merkozy have massively underestimated Papa. But I STILL don’t think we understand his motives fully.

LikeLike
5

John Ward on November 2, 2011 at 5:05 pm

Sarko….any advance on that? OK, the Bouviers are in there: if you Google his family tree, Jackie O was his great half-Aunt or something like that.
Sarko is, by nature, a brash American. (Which, by the way, most Americans aren’t).
Intellectually and strategically, however, he is a pigmy heading towards being sub-atomic antimatter. I am confident that, in 2012, he will be humiliated. But keep an eye on Marine LePen.

LikeLike
6

John Ward on November 2, 2011 at 4:58 pm

AC-B
I agree entirely old top, but I still ask myself, “Why?”
Did you know that Papa has an IQ of 147? Stupid he isn’t. But this isn’t just patriotism or revenge or democracy: Greek politicians don’t do that stuff.
Papa is quite American is his thinking and background……

LikeLike
7

kfc1404 on November 2, 2011 at 4:30 pm

Marcjf.
Also it has been said that if Germany were to leave the Euro all would be well. If that were the case and it was Merkel’s desperate desire to save the Euro, why don’t they exit?

LikeLike
8

marcjf on November 2, 2011 at 4:05 pm

I think one interesting facet of this is the proposal to wait until January to hold a referendum. Does it really take that long? In the meantime the EZ bond market will be in tatters – with a very large sum of debt needing rolling over (have not got the figures but a lot) – from Italy, Spain and others. And no one in their right mind will buy it. Huge pressure on the EFSF and ECB.

The longer this drags on the more likely it is that that Germany/France will offer a better deal – OR – the situation will unravel. More likely the latter.

Whilst on its their I share the earlier comments that G Pap’s actions could be seen as masterful. But if you wanted the EZ to come unstuck this is perhaps how you would have planned it – produce a shaky deal at the [14th?] attempt and then destabilise it within days.

The question is my mind is do the Germans really want the Euro to carry on and be the long term milch cow? Because all their actions (not words – OK maybe “Nein”) suggest to me that they are trying to kill it. The easy answer here – ECB money printing – is off the table. So what is left? Nothing the Germans will tolerate will do more than buy time at great cost. So this is I think approaching the end game.

LikeLike
9

Harold Rosario on November 2, 2011 at 3:59 pm

Gem,
George Pap. was born in America, grew-up and studied in America and didn’t set foot in Greece till he was 22 years old in 1974, shortly after the Colonels had received an offer too god to refuse. True, he comes from a political dynasty and yes, he would have suspected some cooking of the books, but the extent of falsification of Greek statistics just has to be studied to be understood. Upward revisions of deficits of 5-6 percent of GDP ( year 2009), understatement of liabilities, sale of future receivables and funding through zero-coupon interest rate swaps, which do not show up on official statistics ( facilitated by the usual suspects) means that I accept that the incoming PASOK government had no idea how bad the situation was. I believe that the outgoing goverment also had no idea how bad it was because they appear to have deliberately undertaken a policy of falsifying their data to the extent that even they lost track of what was really going on.
Don’t forget that Greek politics is clan politics. Sensitive information can be and is tightly held withing rather small circles of insiders.

LikeLike
10

AJC on November 2, 2011 at 3:52 pm

An interesting slant on Italy …

Berlusconi – Europe’s Mubarak.
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/11/berlusconi-europes-mubarak/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=berlusconi-europes-mubarak

LikeLike
11

AJC on November 2, 2011 at 3:41 pm

The Greek Referendum – Speaking Truth to Power
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/11/the-greek-referendum-speaking-truth-to-power/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-greek-referendum-speaking-truth-to-power

LikeLike
12

John Ward on November 2, 2011 at 3:29 pm

Chris
…and out of the bollocks…

LikeLike
13

nerdman on November 2, 2011 at 3:18 pm

Proofreader, your sacked again, I mean again.

LikeLike
14

ATwillntgohome on November 2, 2011 at 3:17 pm

JW, thanks for keeping us on our toes. Have you been to Greece lately? I think his motives are clear. As much as I dislike him, I don’t think Papandreou has much of a choice…Unless he gets support from the Greek people, he and his government will not hold for much longer (if it’s not too late already). He should have done this earlier, in June. As far as replacing the heads of the military: he can now go to Cannes and defend his actions with the excuse of an eminent coup d’ etat.

LikeLike
15

nerdman on November 2, 2011 at 3:15 pm

Heads he wins. Tails they lose.Could be the basis for a new Panto. Murky could be the ugly dame, and the frog could be the clown. Whats that you say,they already are. Ah, history repeating itself gain.

LikeLike
16

ATwillntgohome on November 2, 2011 at 3:11 pm

Have you been to Greece these last few months? As much as I dislike him, I don’t think Papandreou had much of a choice…Unless he gets support from the Greek people, he and his government will not hold for much longer (if it’s not too late already). He should have done this earlier, in June. As far as replacing the heads of the military: he can now go to Cannes and defend his actions with the excuse of an eminent coup d’ etat.

LikeLike
17

ATwillntgohome on November 2, 2011 at 3:02 pm

This is not war reparations. This was money taken out of Greek banks at the time as a loan with no interest (as the documents indicate).

LikeLike
18

kfc1404 on November 2, 2011 at 3:01 pm

True_Belle
History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, secondly as a farce, only this time I’m not so sure this is a farce…

LikeLike
19

rastaman on November 2, 2011 at 2:59 pm

http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/11/the-greek-referendum-speaking-truth-to-power/
Golem XIV — a must-read-now…. and spread the word..

LikeLike
20

Right Paddock on November 2, 2011 at 2:47 pm

I’m not normally enamoured of dynastic politico broods, but in this case George’s hard wired instincts might have served him well.

LikeLike
21

True_Belle (@True_Belle) on November 2, 2011 at 2:38 pm

One has to thank the wisdom of parents and grandparents who experienced two World Wars, the rhymes they passed down to us, and knowing that history does repeat itself because no one learns from past mistakes!

LikeLike
22

kfc1404 on November 2, 2011 at 2:22 pm

TB.
Yes, I do remember that rhyme! Mmmm, must be getting old!

LikeLike
23

kfc1404 on November 2, 2011 at 2:21 pm

Gem.
I have a suspicion that Sarcozy is going to come off worse than the other two that’s for sure.
In what way do you suppose that EU commission is using Merkel and Sarkozy to further its ends?

LikeLike
24

True_Belle (@True_Belle) on November 2, 2011 at 2:21 pm

Well ,we have no Royal Navy frigates patrolling our shores at the moment – we have a vastly diminished Senior Service now!

What say the Greek Generals get restless- and contagion spreads-?

Do you remember that childhood rhyme–

“Austria was Hungary, took a bit of Turkey, dipped it in Greece and ate it in Spain. Long-legged Italy kicked poor Sicily into the Mediterranen Sea”

History may repeat itself.

LikeLike
25

Right Paddock on November 2, 2011 at 2:17 pm

should be OK

LikeLike
26

Right Paddock on November 2, 2011 at 2:15 pm

A-CB

Is that 30% of China’s global FDI or 30% of its EU FDI.

LikeLike
27

Gem on November 2, 2011 at 1:53 pm

KFC
and the EU commission is using Merkel and Sarkozy to further its ends. I am with JW on this one, that Merkel had suspicions and perhaps even direct information from the horse’s own mouth.

The meeting in Cannes will achieve nothing except another opportunity for the press to say how urgent it all is.

LikeLike
28

Gem on November 2, 2011 at 1:49 pm

Harold R
A politician who has grown up in a country will have a “nose” for what is going on. Papandreou may have been surprised at the sheer scale of what he confronted, but if he had no idea at all, would mean that he would not be the kind of guy who should do the job.

IF JW can extract interesting tid-bits, then Papandreou can get far, far better ones.

Papandreou has been very clever to tap into the disgruntlement his population feel. Merkel needs only talk to her Bundestag to gauge this. As to Sarkozy, I am not sure if he is aware of them; he probably thinks they all live in banker’s offices and wear suits and ties.

LikeLike
29

kfc1404 on November 2, 2011 at 1:46 pm

HR.
Good analysis IMHO. I too think that effectively he is in a “no lose” situation but, has a lot to gain. I said at the beginning of this that Merkel and Sarcozy were no match for Papndreou, he is, running rings around them!

LikeLike
30

oldasiahand on November 2, 2011 at 1:32 pm

Hungarian father and Greek mother .

LikeLike
31

Harold Rosario on November 2, 2011 at 1:31 pm

Following the process of ‘cui bono’, I come to the following conclusions:
1) Papandreou is a politician and wants to hold onto power. It is the ‘raison d’etre’ for his existence.
2) After the euphoria of his election, his expectations of enjoying the trappings of power received a harsh dose of reality when he saw the nuclear bomb left for him by the outgoing government. This was compounded by the Global Financial Crisi.
3) He was probably unaware of the true extent of the problem in Greece because the official statistics were at best ‘rubbery’ and in many cases fraudulent. I remember the outgoing Head of the Statistics Bureau ( who happened to be an American of Greek desent) being challenged on this and in his defence he invoked the ‘Nuremberg Defence’.
4) Papandreou had no chance but to accept the ‘strings attached’ loans coming his way but as the unrealistic nature of the demands broke on the restive population, civil disobedience broke out and has got much worse leaving the eceonomy moribund.
5) As time went by and Papandreou played for time and more money, he must have been aware that the French and German and interlinked through the Financial Institutions even the American and Italian goverments , faced a threat to their own survival if things went pear shaped. This was re-inforced after the last ‘Troika’ inspection which recommended the release of the next loan trance even though Greece had not met any of its targets. He realised that he wasn’t as weak as he at first appeared.
6) The austerity measure that had been applied were leading to civil unrest, the eceonomy was going backwards, the opposition was baying for his blood ( forgetting as all good politicians do, their less than honorable part in the problem when in government) and his government was looking at a real spanking in the next election, if it survived that long. However, though the Greek people were rebelling at what they saw as externally imposed measures designed to reduce them to penury, this anger was being focussed on the Germans who are popular villains in the Greek physche. Furthermore, the desire to stay in the Euro was still popularly supported ( 70% according to some surveys) and the desire to be in the EU was also similarly strong.
7) Putting this together, Papandreou realised that if he perisited as being the deliverer of bad news for another two years, both he and PASOK would end up in the political wilderness. In addition he saw the weakness in the Merkel-Sarkozy axis. This led to what I consider a masterstroke. Challenge the Greek people to support membership in the EU/Euro by refererendum. If the Opposition blocked this by not supporting the motion ( it requires 3/5 majority to pass), the Opposition would be potrayed as spoilers and hypocrites, crippling their claims to legitimacy as a voice of the people. So, they would probably support the referendum.
If the polling was correct, the Greeks would vote ‘Yes” and by doing so, would give Papandreou a direct mandate to reform Greece. In addition the Opposition would end up in political exile.
As for the Merkozy alliance and their fellow tyravellers, while they may huff and puff, they daren’t blow the house down for fears of the blowback on themselves.
High stakes stuff and it might come off. If it doesn’t Papandreou and PASOK were finished anyway.

LikeLike
32

dermot o'malley on November 2, 2011 at 1:15 pm

Broken link.

LikeLike
33

Sussexwino on November 2, 2011 at 1:11 pm

Sarkozy – 1/2 Hungarian, not Greek.

LikeLike
34

Bankrupt Taxpayer on November 2, 2011 at 12:33 pm

How long before the Costas are flooded with the Chinese new rich!

LikeLike
35

Gem on November 2, 2011 at 12:32 pm

JW
as ever your sources do you proud, and you have the courage to put it in writing. That, sir, is something I respect and admire.

As to Sarkozy and Merkel, you mention their indecision. My feelings run counter to yours on this matter, as I see the EU using their national interests to further that of the EU. It is a classic move by a tyrrany. It has bought the US banks valuable time in all this, and they have used it well if you remember my link for the nefarious deeds of the Bank of America. If you did miss it, here it is again http://bloom.bg/nXSawd

There are underhand goings on and democracies like Germany are being abused by those whose interests are not democratic. Papandreou is showing some courage here, were it but 2001 and the formation of the Euro!! Then things might have been different.

LikeLike
36

Andrew Craig-Bennett on November 2, 2011 at 12:30 pm

China may fill up Papa George’s begging bowl – they have tipped quite a bit in already. 30% of Chinese FDI has been going into Club Med – an amazing figure.

LikeLike
37

Steve Finney on November 2, 2011 at 12:28 pm

[IMG]http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/z386/steviefinney/386275_315786668435591_100000127816483_1481779_851725798_n.jpg[/IMG]

LikeLike
38

Bankrupt Taxpayer on November 2, 2011 at 12:26 pm

Did the renunciation have anything to do with Germany looking the other way when Greece tabled its phony financial numbers to join the Euro.
hhmmm.

LikeLike
39

stuart on November 2, 2011 at 12:25 pm

Afternoon fellow sloggers,

This has been very interesting for one thing above all others, and that is how calling a referendum (i.e. consulting the voters) has suddendly become seen as a threat, viz this from the Daily Mail;

“Labour peer Lord Soley said: ‘When the history of this period is written it may well be that the Greek decision will be seen as the economic equivalent of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand at Sarajevo in 1914. It will trigger events way beyond the borders of Greece or even Europe.”

How dare Mr Papandraeou hold a referendum in Greece, the birthplace of er….democracy. Perish the thought that this sort of thing should catch on in other parts of the Euro zone …

Still I must congratulate him on playing a blinder, and tossing a hand grenade into the fish tank that is the euro zone…

Now that the Chinese have declined to fill up thebegging bowl, Mr Papandeou’s move will speed up the inevitable unravelling of the Euro…

Cheers

Stuart

LikeLike
40

Steve Finney on November 2, 2011 at 12:23 pm

LikeLike
41

derek83d on November 2, 2011 at 12:16 pm

Perhaps there were upward heading ‘rumblings’ within the Greek military from the foot soldiers being worried about the prospect of further civil unrest. Can’t be much fun bashing your next door neighbour, ex-college friends or lecturers etc. with a riot shield, can it?

LikeLike
42

Etonius Castrata on November 2, 2011 at 12:10 pm

Three cheers for Papa George.
The EU leaders have been trumped and Camerlot are still scratching their bottoms

LikeLike
43

Andrew Craig-Bennett on November 2, 2011 at 12:00 pm

He has elegantly kept the options open, and if all continues to go to plan he will emerge as the hero of the hour in either event.

LikeLike
44

Geoff on November 2, 2011 at 12:00 pm

I agree Greece is no longer a sovereign state that will only continue to default on every loan it is ever going to be given.

The fact the French and Germans don’t get is you simply cannot order a nation to change its habits because your lending it some money! the Franco German empire do not give a fig about George Papandreou in fact they see him and the Greek people as having let them and the rest of the side sitting in Brussels down!

But they forgot what a canny politician George Papandreou is, His negotiations with Sarcastic and Merkin et al bought him that commodity so precious to all politicians time! Time to decide how best to come out of this with some of his dignity intact and he has come up with an absolute winner a referendum!

If the Greek public say NO to the bailout he can claim to have acted in the best interests of his country’s sovereignty and dignity (Even more important in that part of the world than even France!) he can then resign and keep a low profile till they have forgotten about the whole nasty business and then make a return at a later date (Just like Liam Fox is planning)

In the highly unlikely event of the Greek voters going for the Bailout he is given a mandate to continue he can start to rebuild his reputation in the EU.
You have to hand it to George he has out manoeuvred the Franco
German empire and STILL has a trick or two up his sleeve I wager.

LikeLike
45

oldasiahand on November 2, 2011 at 11:55 am

Perhaps he doesn’t really want to win it anyway but dare not tell the Fuhereine and the halfcaste Greek dwarf to their faces. A no vote would force the desirable Icelandic situation.

LikeLike
46

Sebastian Weetabix on November 2, 2011 at 11:30 am

Itself a euphemism for “Berlin Time”

LikeLike
47

Andrew Craig-Bennett on November 2, 2011 at 11:24 am

I don’t think there is or was any prospect of a coup in Greece, but Papandreou has expertly pressed the Greek Left’s hot button and whipped them back into line. A referendum is much cleverer than a general election, which he might lose, and the wording can be tinkered with for weeks.

It is always a pleasure to watch a professional at work.

LikeLike
48

Morningstar on November 2, 2011 at 11:20 am

I wonder whether ‘Wee Davy’ is watching and becoming inspired about the unusual concept of asking the people what they would like to do with their own country when what you are doing is so obviously unpopular with the natives ?

And then I woke up !!!!

LikeLike
49

Robin Banks on November 2, 2011 at 11:19 am

Papandreou has the support of his cabinet? Reminds me of a football manager whose got the full support of his Chairman only to be sacked a week later.

LikeLike
50

Mark Gamble on November 2, 2011 at 11:01 am

It is up to the Greek people now… which is as it should be.

Too many decisions are being made in the EU and Euro without due democratic process, I understand that sometimes situations demand quick decisions but the EU and Euro Leaders have taken that argument too far as of late.

If the Greeks vote yes then they can look forward to 10 years of hardship with no real solution and the Euro Crisis will rumble on, if they vote no the EU and Euro leaders will have no choice but to accept it unless they want to invade Greece (yeah right!).

Europe and the World is a very different place to how it was in the mid 20th century, we have all moved on but it seems the Germans and French have not.

Neither the French or the German’s give a toss about saving Greece (the plan they cooked up at the summit certainly won’t save Greece), it is all about saving the French banking system which is f**ked anyway.

According to polticians and bureaucrats there is never a good time to have a referendum which only goes to prove one thing, a referendum is exactly what is needed even at the worst of times.

LikeLike
51

oldasiahand on November 2, 2011 at 11:00 am

EUTime? No such thing, it’s Central European Time (CET).

LikeLike
52

Jon on November 2, 2011 at 11:00 am

What would we do without the Daily Mail eh? My understanding is that Greece renounced any claim on reparations in the 90s.

LikeLike
53

Barbara Richards on November 2, 2011 at 10:55 am

http://aangirfan.blogspot.com/2011/11/germany-owes-greece-60-billion-for-nazi.html

LikeLike
54

David on November 2, 2011 at 10:53 am

correction – MSM

LikeLike
55

David on November 2, 2011 at 10:52 am

Up to the minute stuff, as usual, and way ahead of the MMS. The heads of the armed services cannot have been fired for nothing. That action, in itself, may have its risks of course….

LikeLike
56

Andrew Craig-Bennett on November 2, 2011 at 10:49 am

Papandreou is an expert politician; he is sitting on a majority of 152 seats out of 300, and so far as I am aware we don’t know the wording of the Question(s) yet.

My hunch is that replacing the heads of the Armed Forces is a ploy designed to give the impression to the Left that there was or is some danger of a coup, and the referendum is a ploy to keep his back benchers in line.

I am strangely reminded of Harold Wilson in the Seventies…

LikeLike
57

Chris Loughrey on November 2, 2011 at 10:36 am

Like you’ve said before John, national self-interest will take over from here on.all this “we’re in this together” rhetoric is being left behind by nations looking out for themselves. Pap just seems to be the first to publicly come out of the blocks.

LikeLike