Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs has a new book out, being serialised in the Torygraph at present. The inventors of the term BRICS, O’Neill now argues that the four countries should no longer be thought of as “emerging” economies, but seen instead as “growth” economies – who should be given their rightful place on what is now the G7/G20 construct.

Given the G-force displayed by these talking shops in 2011, the assumption that emerging growth economies will aspire to membership of them is something I find profoundly depressing. But then books like this one project forward: they tend not to spot curved balls. The ideas in it show great insight, but the acceptance of a status quo simply being replaced by another one doesn’t fit with my view; nor is it borne out by history.

So far, it reads like fascinating stuff as ever from Jim, whom I do regard as one of the straightest and nicest people at Goldman – and a man whose taste in soccer teams is impeccable.
But as always with the business/banking community, none of the flaws in the existing make-up are even accepted, let alone addressed.
The EU is drowning thanks to bank-created debt. The US talks of growth, but has an obscene deficit/debt position – and nowhere near enough American consumers are there to drive the economy back to growth….and between the West and the East, manic mercantilist ideas are dragging us down a can-strewn road that can only end up at the cliff-face. (Whether that will be at the top or bottom of the cliff remains unclear).

There isn’t a central banker anywhere in the West who has the remotest idea what to do about this, except shower the banking and multinational firms with yet more mountains of cash. Austerity is crippling growth, but austerity is vital if the debt is to be reduced. This is a circle that will turn and turn, becoming ever more vicious. Perhaps we should address this first before imagining what the G7 membership might  be in 2027.

That sector of humanity increasingly referred to as the Denialment really need to take a break, get out more, and read a couple of anthropology books: it would do everyone a great deal of good.