Kim Jong not il, he dead. Sorry – childish I know, but his clean demise (heart attack on a train) has left a few Korea-watchers in Washington with doubts about whether his death was entirely natural. I blogged last year to the effect that Kim went torpedoing and missile chucking during 2009-10 because he was looking for some aid as a quid pro quo for not doing that kind of sh*t any more….and also because being aggressive for no reason would keep him in the army’s good books. (1 in 4 North Koreans serves in the armed forces).

The plan behind the late Kim’s aggressive outburst was to keep the populace happy with foreign aid, and ensure the army backed the succession of his son – now hailed as ‘the great successor and lighthouse of hope’, although he really just looks like the fat nerd who’s always hanging around in McDonalds. But things have fallen into place rather conveniently for the army and its allies, rather than Kim Jong-il. His son Kim Jong-un (yes, it’s another Kim) is only 27 and, by all accounts he really is the nerd from McDonalds. Close observers will note that there is already talk of Kim3 getting some ‘help’ while coming to grips with the dictatorship thing.

His uncle Chang Sung-taek runs the Defence sector along with his scheming wife. He’s also hand in glove with the military. He’s already looking like the de facto Regent. It would be very unwise to expect anything good at all to come out of this.

In the meantime, it’d be fun to read the autopsy. But not as much fun as it was reading the Guardian’s ‘take’ on all this. Poor old Big G really is going increasingly tonto as the rumours of its death become less exaggerated. The Guardianistas enlisted Dr Leonid Petrov of the University of Sydney who, being a former Soviet intellectual with a doctoral thesis on ‘Sixty Years of North Korea-Australia Relationships’, said he believed North Korea “would be co-operative if Clinton restarted the relationship and proposed a peace agreement and roadmap for security and trade.” Well Leo, that’s kind of what the US tried to do last time, only just when North Korea’s, you know, not chucking any more missiles about promise became due for consummation, they fled the altar. But Dr Petrov disagrees:

“I’m afraid the expectations are of one-sided disarmament, democratisation and openness – without much commitment from the US to changing its unequivocal position of trade sanctions, no security assurance and no diplomatic recognition. That is what North Korea fears most,” he added.

Call me picky here, but I don’t remember what North Korea fears being top of the world’s agenda. In fact, aside from there being no food or economy once the army has finished with the budgets, I don’t recall North Korea having anything to fear at all. But you can always rely on a distinctive view from Alan Rusbridger’s desk. Small details like the late Leader having spent five years in his underpants without ever going out (and torpedoing a South Korean tanker in its own waters) are put to one side. The fact that deceased Kim’s father in turn is still officially alive (although he’s been dead for thirty years) is also ignored….along with the 1-in-4 military to civilian quotient.

What those really in charge of North Korea feared was Kim Jong-il surviving long enough to make his equally chubby son look like a worthy successor in his own right. Basically, North Korea is ‘guided’ and motivated by mad bastards with guns and money. Insanely monied and armed people tend to cause other people they need out of the way to have heart attacks. And if you wanted to do it undisturbed, what better place than a train? There’s certainly an influential faction inside US intelligence that thinks this. But don’t hold your breath waiting for proof.

PS I guess that, like me, you saw those sickeningly funny clips of Korean people lining up in neat rows to have a good cry over the last 48 hours. I’d be intrigued to know what Dr Leonid Petrov made of it.