John Ward January 19, 2012 GREEK DEBT LAST MINUTE HITCH

BREAKING….NEW GREEK DEBT COMPLICATIONS

Some Hedge Fund renegades holding out.

That’s all I have for the time being. Apparently some Hedgies have said ‘no deal below 4% new issue coupon’.

Whoops…..

45Comments

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1

goundedkiwi on January 19, 2012 at 11:53 pm

The yanks need countries to buy dollars

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2

kfc1404 on January 19, 2012 at 9:08 pm

Yeah, and we will still be here next year….

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kfc1404 on January 19, 2012 at 8:47 pm

Fear not, all will be well. No default, Germany will pay.

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kfc1404 on January 19, 2012 at 8:45 pm

@marcjf
Minor hiccups to these boys. We are only now beginning to realise just how good they are.
It’s here to stay, we have to get used to it.

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Bankrupt Taxpayer on January 19, 2012 at 7:44 pm

@Ryck Stout:
“…this cancer will metastasize to other PIIGS who are locked in a death grip with socialism and terminal debt…”

Welcome to the European Union.

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Bankrupt Taxpayer on January 19, 2012 at 7:38 pm

@Sliced Alone: Aye, Mosanto is not my favourite corporation with its wretched ‘terminator gene’ to prevent farmers from using this year’s seeds for next year.
I’m not sure who I dislike the most, them or another corporate fascist: Microsoft.

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7

Phil A on January 19, 2012 at 5:59 pm

“2012 will be the most eventful year for 2000 years” so says the preacher Lindsey Williams, and this guy has a direct link to the elitists and has proven this time an again by correctly predicting future events that the bad guys choose to inform him about well in advance. Remember when oil went from $75 to $150 and then back to under $40 a barrel in 2008? This guy predicted that exactly right and got laughed at before it happened but not afterwards!

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Bankrupt Taxpayer on January 19, 2012 at 4:21 pm

@stuart: At the same time as American big money interests have had excessive influence over the decades and continue to do so, America has also been in the forefront of holding the line against evil creeping socialism and other totalitarian brainfarts on behalf of all of us who cherish freedom and liberty without a giant nanny state breathing down our necks. It has also brought huge numbers of inventions to the table of mankind, many of which you are almost certainly a user of.
The current incumbent of the WH is doing serious damage to America with his socialist policies.

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Ryck Stout on January 19, 2012 at 4:19 pm

This is insanity. The Greeks will NOT cut spending and will seek more forgiveness and this cancer will metastasize to other PIIGS who are locked in a death grip with socialism and terminal debt leading to bankruptcy.

Beware of Greeks bearing bonds

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10

marcjf on January 19, 2012 at 3:12 pm

What could possibly go wrong?
1. The Greek PSI is declared a success then uwinds as non-participants refuse the offer and try to trigger CDS
2. Portugal runs out of cash and seeks US help
3. Italy runs out of enthusiasm for auterity and asks the Germans for help
4. 2 or more EZ banks can’t raise the necessary capital and get nationalised, further closing the inter-bank market
5. Hungary plays hard ball
6. Riots in Spain / Greece / Italy etc
7. Eire demands its pound of flesh for being an EU patsy
8. US/China/UK etc refuse extra funds for IMF
9. Recession in the EZ
10. Greece bail out II in 3 months
11. French elections removes Sarkozy
12. Germans notice ponzi money printing by ECB

I’m running short of ideas now – but it strikes me that any one of these might cause the house of cards to collapse – and most are likely.

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11

Maria dos Santos on January 19, 2012 at 3:00 pm

The cost of continually running these plants is astronomical.The volume of petrol/gas consummed in the US/EU and the UK has dropped according to the Oildrum.
On a side note,oligarchs are even complaining about their food bills in some of those beautiful houses in Chelsea/Mayfair.

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12

mountainman on January 19, 2012 at 3:00 pm

very interesting … Thanks

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13

Patrick on January 19, 2012 at 2:56 pm

Thanks for the update John. I looked on twitter for news and saw this which only adds to the worry.

“Greece has a one-year govt bond yield which continues to rise and is now 463%. So much for PSI talks progress… #eurocrisis #gfc2 #euro”
@notayesmansecon

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14

stuart on January 19, 2012 at 2:35 pm

In response to Bankrupt Taxpayer and Sliced Alone;

You should really read Jules Archer and ‘The plot to seize the White House’ , which took place in 1933, when the big right wing corporations in America, attempted to organise a Fascist coup against Franklin Roosevelt over his idea of abandoning the gold standard .

By now the whole thing is forgotten episode of American history, and had it not been for the rock solid integrity of the Marine General (and twice recipient of the medal of honor) Smedley Darlington Butler, in exposing it, it could well have succeeded.

General Butler was also notable for being a pacifist, as he pointed out in ‘War is a Racket’;

” I helped make Mexico, especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914, I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. The record of racketeering is long. I helped purify Nicaragua for the international banking house of Brown Brothers in 1909-12. I bought light to the Dominican republic for American sugar interests in 1916. In China I helped to see to ity that Standard Oil went on it’s way unmolested.

During those years, I had, as the boys in the backroom would say, a swell racket. Looking back on it, I feel I could have given Al Capone a few hints. The Best he could do was operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents…”

However it just goes to show that the faceless corporations that run our world, are capable of anything, in 1933 as nowadays, as I doubt we have many General Butlers left.

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steviefinn on January 19, 2012 at 2:33 pm

@ mountainman.

A lot of info here, that might help.

http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/01/a-new-reserve-currency-to-challenge-the-dollar-whats-really-going-on-in-the-straits-of-hormuz/

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16

napiersabre on January 19, 2012 at 2:31 pm

kfc Oil is finite only in the same way that the earth has a finite mass. Reserves and economically recoverable oil continue to increase year on year. You will find there are other reasons for the closure of these plant other than the obvious. Perhaps some manipulation is going on. Also the Obama administration has made such a pigs ear or energy that it has probably confused the market for a generation. Also gas has halved in price in the US and this would have reduced demand for oil.

Another factor is many plants are optimised for a particular product, and if the requirement changes the plant can become uneconomic.

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steviefinn on January 19, 2012 at 2:30 pm

TJ
I was under the impression that the banks were the ones getting the lions share of subsidies, like the UK banks last count total of 850 billion. Oh, I was forgetting, that’s OK , it was a good investment on the part of the British taxpayer, according to a big lump of Brown stuff.

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Sliced Alone on January 19, 2012 at 2:14 pm

BT,

That is exactly my point about the US. With regards to the corporatocracy, you need look no further than Monsanto who in effect control the US food supply. It that’s not downright f***in’ dangerous, I don’t know what is.

You then have the pharmacy giant CVS who then go on to control the price of your drugs when you get ill on all those Monsanto Frankenstein crops. My worry is that we are on a path along the same corporatist route, about 5 years behind.

How long before it is made illegal in the UK to collect rainwater and grow your own vegetables in the interests of ‘health & safety’!

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19

steviefinn on January 19, 2012 at 2:14 pm

Will
The lingerie chain ” La Senza ” went bust recently, KPMG told the employees they would not receive wages owed to them. The girls asked occupy Dame street in Dublin for advise. They were told to organise a sit-in. Due to this advise, support & publicity gained from these actions, they are now getting paid. I don’t think they would have gone anywhere near the occupiers if their shop had not gone bust. Most people are like that.

http://www.thejournal.ie/la-senza-sit-in-ends-as-kpmg-agrees-to-pay-up-327780-Jan2012/

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20

steviefinn on January 19, 2012 at 1:57 pm

I wonder if there is another AIG out there ?

http://www.dailywealth.com/506/How-AIG-s-Collapse-Began-a-Global-Run-on-the-Banks

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21

mountainman on January 19, 2012 at 1:55 pm

“the price will always be rising.” … if that were true then the forward curve would be in contango i.e. the price would be higher as you further into the future, but the Brent forward curve is in backwardation – $6 or so discount for Dec `13 over prompt month and the WTI forward curve is contango until Jul and then backwardation after that

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Bankrupt Taxpayer on January 19, 2012 at 1:50 pm

@Sliced Alone: I agree with you on that but also see my reply to JCL which is not mutually exclusive with your own views.

I’m especially interested by your view of US politics…it’s something that’s been on my own mind for a long time but rarely debated. What I see increasingly over there is corporate fascism, along the lines of Mussolini where the State and Big Money virtually become one and the players are interchangeable.

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23

Jwoo on January 19, 2012 at 1:50 pm

Thanks Jacqui, I watched them all. I know it’s little things please little minds but hey, guilty as charged.

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Bankrupt Taxpayer on January 19, 2012 at 1:42 pm

@JCL: I’m sure plenty of rank and file Labour supporters are wary of the EU but I didn’t refer to them. Same applies in reverse to the Tories (Heath was a great EU supporter). But the Labour Party true believers have always been supportive of the EU to distinguish itself from the Tories. And let us not forget that Blair wanted to join the Euro. It was only Brown (for reasons of vindictive hatred towards Blair) that prevented it. I still firmly believe that the EU – full of unelected fascists wannabes – is right up the Labour Party’s street.

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Sliced Alone on January 19, 2012 at 1:36 pm

BT,

I agree except I don’t believe this is a partisan issue. The Tories/Labour debate is obsolete, they are in effect two sides of the same coin, marionettes operated by the same elite puppeteers. It is the same with the US with their red/blue teams but they are further down the fascist line.

Many think that they are given a democratic choice with governments. It is my opinion that elections are just window dressing/distractions.

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26

JCL on January 19, 2012 at 1:26 pm

Don’t bring the Labour Party rank and file into this BT – they’re as wary of the EU as the Tories rank and file are. This is about an elite vs the people.

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27

JCL on January 19, 2012 at 1:20 pm

The Hedgies also own a lot of CDS insurance as well. If Greece defaults, they make money as well.

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will lefeurve on January 19, 2012 at 1:19 pm

@Kit Green
Cheers Kit… I’ll leave just one below then. Also check out ICE futures oil speculation. It ain’t about supply and demand or even geopolitical risk anymore. It’s just another financial product that GS and friends can hoover up huge profits from..
http://oilgeopolitics.net/Financial_Tsunami/Oil_Speculation/oil_speculation.HTM

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kfc1404 on January 19, 2012 at 1:17 pm

@Mountainman
You also have to take into consideration the cost research and mining, those costs have risen too, if oil is too cheap they can’t afford to mine it.
Whoever you believe, it is a finite resource so, yes, the price will always be rising.

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Bankrupt Taxpayer on January 19, 2012 at 1:11 pm

@will lefeurve: Totally agree. I think many of us encounter that sort of reaction on these issues. What the “don’t wanna knows” haven’t realised is that they’re sitting back and allowing a back-door coup to happen across Europe. We will end up with a new State ‘USE’ run by unelected, incompetent fascists and political elites.
Britain, more than any other European nation, should realise this and what it leads to. I can understand the Labour Party wanting that because it’s right up their street, but not the Tories…they should know better. It is long past time for Britain to seriously address our relationship with the EU. Anything less that that is treacherous.

I also totally agree with Rand’s quote from @Sliced Alone.

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31

rightpaddock on January 19, 2012 at 1:08 pm

@laurence, and I presume you’d have them start killing people again also.

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Kit Green on January 19, 2012 at 1:02 pm

There is a default limit of one url in a comment.

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33

will lefeurve on January 19, 2012 at 12:56 pm

My answer to ‘mountainman’ on crude prices is awaiting moderation. Why’s that then. I only mentioned it was speculation by the usual suspects and gave some informative web url’s to back up my point….

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34

william on January 19, 2012 at 12:44 pm

Greece is bust.Period.4 percent coupon,it does not matter,the replacement debt is just another piece of valueless paper,unless the whole scheme is underwritten by the German taxpayer(some hope).This will drag on for years.What the eurofanatics have created is a relatively prosperous northern zone(cf.USA/Canada) ,an inbetween zone(France,Italy,Spain,maybe you will get your money back) and then the no hopers(Greece,Portugal,Ireland),where their future taxpayers are unlikely to honour the obligations of a previous generation.Europe is South America as it used to be,nobody will lend in future to any country outside the northern zone,but these things take time.

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35

Jacqui on January 19, 2012 at 12:40 pm

Stay out of the EU …
or you’ll do it like this…..

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36

mountainman on January 19, 2012 at 12:36 pm

It`s not just in the financial world that is completely out of whack…

Yesterday Hovensa announced they would shut their refinery at St.Croix because they had lost $1.3 billion over the last three years. St.Croix is one of the most modern refineries in the world – upgraded to refine heavy Venezuelan crude into gasoline for the US with a capacity of 500k bbl/day (Hovensa is a Hess/PDVSA joint venture).
Sunoco have recently mothballed Philly and Marcus Hook (335k and 178k bpd), Conoco has mothballed Trainer (185 bpd).
In Europe Petroplus closed Petit Couronne and Cressier (161 and 680 bpd, Repsol closed Petronor (240 bpd).

So in the last few months the US/Europe has lost nearly 1.7 million bpd of refining capacity because the refineries can`t make money.

Yet it was announced on Monday that petrol in France had reached the highest price ever (when crude was $147 the Euro/$ was 1.60) and I have heard (3rd or 4th hand so hard to verify) that in Sicily people have been reduced to counting coins in their pockets to pay for 2.5 or 3 litres of petrol at a time (no minimum 5litres there anymore….).

Some thing is not right here ……

Logically the cut in refining capacity should push up the price of petrol/gasoline and if anything reduce the price of crude. Gasoline did rise yesterday but the price of crude has not fallen – higher gasoline prices mean that the (remaining) refiners can pay more for their crude is supposedly the reason.

If the petrol/gasoline prices are such that people can no longer afford to buy petrol/gasoline and yet refineries are shutting down because they are losing too much money then the only answer is that crude prices are too high.

So who is keeping WTI above $100 and Brent above $110 ?
Maybe we should look in the direction of the people trying to provoke Iran into a war – a war that could disrupt 20-35% (depends how you look at it) of the worlds crude oil supply…..
Now I wonder why the Yanks want to keep the oil price so high ??
It certainly isn`t for the benefit of the 99%……

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TJ on January 19, 2012 at 12:29 pm

Greece , Portugal, Spain and Italy are not able to generate enough money to pay their debts at market rates – ever.
If the others want to subsidise them over the long term, well that’s up to them, but most thinking people will be saying….not with my money….ever.

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Sliced Alone on January 19, 2012 at 12:07 pm

Indeed!

“You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality”

Ayn Rand

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will lefeurve on January 19, 2012 at 12:03 pm

@BT
The trouble is BT, even in the UK the political class is wedded to this EU fantasy dream despite their weasel words to the contrary. What’s even more disheartening is the fact that when you try to inform friends etc that are well educated and articulate, the majority just don’t want to know. It threatens their safe and comfy lives, and makes them feel insecure. Better to ignore and do nothing is the order of the day… it will all go away.

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laurence on January 19, 2012 at 11:56 am

@kfc

I hope the Hedgies keep pushing. That way ,things will get so bad
that the Colonels will step in again and help to bring this whole farce
to an end.

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kfc1404 on January 19, 2012 at 11:44 am

@Will
No, you are correct Will, it ain’t gonna happen. Sure as eggs are eggs the Hedgies will do as they are told.

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Bankrupt Taxpayer on January 19, 2012 at 11:44 am

I think the issue over 4% is not big enough to prevent a deal. As others have said, the elites will not allow a breakdown of their EU fantasy dream.

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will lefeurve on January 19, 2012 at 11:38 am

As much as I’d like this madness to explode and bring about a Greek disorderly default with all that implies… it ain’t gonna happen. The global elite/cabal will not allow it, and it is they that have the true power. They control the money, and we are just bystanders that are watching from the sidelines while the futures of millions of people are shredded. It saddens me to my very core.

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kfc1404 on January 19, 2012 at 11:25 am

I read recently that Hedge Funds generally would prefer it if things returned to the way they used to be, i.e. All the individual nations having their own currencies and interest rates as they were able to make more money then.
Is this the case?

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kfc1404 on January 19, 2012 at 11:11 am

I bet all the Hedgies will fall into line when the right inducement is on the table.

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