Evidence grows of No-Vote intimidation in Ireland

Being the first of the month, everyone is going to be surprised. Not that it’s the 1st June, but that the economic data is even worse than the experts thought/hoped/expected.

The US has non-farm payroll data to chew on, and the unemployment rate. Both are meaningless stats because of the way jobs and being employed are defined in America. The White House will argue that the recovery is now well under way, and the FT will dutifully report that. The rest of us will wait for the exports and deficit data in due course.

The main focus this side of the Pond will be on Italy, where the topline manufacturing and employment figures will be out. Expect them to be ‘disappointing’ at best, as one Italian (a signor M. Draghi, banker of this parish) has already said that the eurozone is unsustainable as long as politicians do nothing to help it. Mario is still nervous after Mariano Rajoy sent him a bank full of excrement to transmute into gold last Monday: he knows what’s coming, and like a good Catholic he’s getting his absolution in early.

The only thing we can be sure about today is that the Troika are preparing to bail out Spain. We’re certain about this here in Slogger’s Roost, because the IMF, the EU and the Chancellery in Berlin are denying that any such thing is even being considered let alone prepared/imminent/going to happen any time now/a racing certainty.

Finally, it’s a great day for the Irish, as the old song had it. With 33% of FU voters undecided and over half abstaining in resignation, it’s a tough one to call. But a market research crony in Dublin tells me the yeses probably have it. Let’s see if he’s right.