…and the Telegraph can no longer be taken seriously
It has been declared many times that Bourse-driven capitalism is something of an illusion that can only be maintained by trust and confidence. So when trust turns to distrust and confidence becomes discernment of a confidence trick, there really isn’t much hope of the system surviving – at least, not without a lot of unpleasantness.
We have no shortage of first-class blogs very able in the craft of cutting open the locked secrets. There is a blog, Raging Bull-Shit, which describes itself as ‘a modest attempt to challenge some of the wishful thinking and scrub away the lathers of soft soap peddled by our political and business leaders and their loyal mainstream media’. The former enfant térrible become very grown-up forensic bullshit surgeon Anna Raccoon built her formidable reputation on the basis of having ‘a jaundiced view of the media’. And my own modest little Slog began life by claiming to deconstruct the bollocks handed out to a supine media set by a malign political class.
So in that context, I bid you note that the Maily Telegraph was yesterday running some crap about UK economic growth, in order to offer George Osborne the big build-up for his Autumn Statement. I quote from the Sarky Twinograph:
‘Britain’s growth prospects will be upgraded by the largest margin in more than a decade this week, as the Chancellor delivers his Autumn Statement against the brightest economic backdrop since the Coalition took power in 2010. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – the Government’s independent fiscal watchdog – is likely to upgrade its projection for UK growth in 2013 to 1.4pc, from a forecast of 0.6pc in March.’
There is a Freudian undergarment in the phrase ‘the Government’s independent fiscal watchdog’, but leaving that to one side, what is entirely absent from Szu Ping Chan’s column is even one iota of interrogation of this profoundly ridiculous idea. Instead, she continues, ‘Growth for 2014 is also likely to be upgraded, to 2.3pc from 1.8pc.’. There is more of ‘could well be’, ‘leaves room for’, and ‘would suggest that’ before a triumphant ending suggests ‘the Chancellor is expected to honour pledges made at the Conservative and Liberal Democrat party conferences, including a commitment to scrap next September’s fuel duty rise and to introduce free school meals for primary school pupils’.
There are a number of things in play here, and if I may I will try to summarise them below in no particular order of merit, given that the merit involved is barely homaeoepathic.
1. Not for the first time, I note the hagiographic support of the Clones of Sark for George Osborne. I believe there is an agenda here, and it is not unrelated to a growing desire to prove to truculent but spineless 1922 Tories that hating David Cameron need not necessarily lead to Armageddon and the loss of their welfare stipends seats.. Remember that the Chancellor is multi-footed, and dips his toe into many waters while swinging from bough to bough along the Zambezi that is the Conservative Party. I further suggest M’lud that Mayor Borisconi is quite relaxed about this, and sees Mr Unborn as a man with whom he could work.
2. When it comes to big fat fibs, the Chancellor has form. On entering Office, he lost no time in “revising” the definition of the inflation/deflation line, thus enabling himself to be in either state depending on which way the wind was blowing. So we should be wary of too easily assuming that Gideon isn’t dealing off the bottom as often as the top….and, who knows, another line at the middle.
3. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) was entirely Osborne’s idea: it has no track record of independence at all as yet. And lest this seem like a wild allegation, just remember that the much-feted “unimpeachable” FSA managed to look the other way, put the telescope in its ear and turn the blind eye on the subject of Co-Op Bank’s solvency issues.
4. More than one gossip source avers that Mark Carney privately thinks the Chancellor “a bit of a wide-boy”.
5. The OBR (when not agreeing with Georgie – a rarity) has itself been the subject of doubts about its competence from…..well well, roger me stupid, the Maily Torygraph. On 27th August 2012, the paper noted (my emphases):
‘Doug McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the independent think tank, said the OBR – set up to improve the flow of economic data to the Chancellor and his advisers to aid decision making – has been a “disaster”. He said it has relied too heavily on Whitehall and academics for its forecasting work and had failed to make better use of non-government sources in producing its analysis….The OBR predicted in March [2012] the economy would grow at a similar pace this year and Britain would avoid a double dip recession. The economy slipped into recession in the first quarter and last week’s revised second quarter data showed growth contracted by 0.5pc, modest improvement on the first estimate of a 0.7pc fall…One of the reasons the OBR has been so unsuccessful is that it has completely failed to understand how to bring in information from the outside.’
Ah, right. So clearly then, when the OBR understates the Chancellor’s expectations, it is a zero. But when it states what the Chancellor wants us all to hear, it is a hero. Well fair enough then, I suppose that fits the Grant Shapps definition of ‘independent’.
As I said at the outset of this piece, trust and confidence. It’s not good for any illusionist when, having said there’s nothing up his sleeve, we spot a flurry of dove-feathers. Even worse, however, is for a British Chancellor to say he does have something up his sleeve…..and then produce nothing but his arm.
Please do bear all this in mind as the coming week’s propaganda leads to George Osborne’s ‘recovery’ statement.
The Slog 