A good example of what Harold Macmillan meant by “events dear boy, events” is the weather. It looks like we’re in for a very cold winter indeed. I don’t go much on long-range forecasting normally, as it is nearly always miles out. But there does seem to be a consensus among the alchemists this time….and thus far, they’ve been right on the button:

‘There are some distinct signs and signals that the forth coming winter will be a potential opposite to that of what was experienced during last winter….the current expectations are that as the winter progresses the risk of increasingly colder spells will develop and with the first cold spell of weather potentially arriving during December and with then a risk of cold weather, at times, continuing throughout the remainder of the winter period.’

It’s December 8th, and already we’re below freezing here in south west France. “Coldest for fifty years” and “very, very cold” are summations of what Met Offices around the globe are expecting. This has obvious ramifications in many areas of fiscal, economic and energy policy. The following stand out more than most:

1. Heavy energy usage, favouring oil producing nations – and upping the import bill for those who aren’t

2. Falling retail sales in the context of already weak sales this year, and the post-Christmas desert that will begin in January

3. Pressure on the Government to augment winter fuel allowances

4. Far fewer housing starts, knocking back the Government’s progress on new build

5. Increase in vehicle and personal injury claims

6. In a casual-labour skewed economy, rapidly rising seasonal unemployment

7. Heavy snowfalls at low heights disrupting the work transport of around 50-100 million people in the EU.

8. Rapid rise in the deaths of retired people too poor to turn on their heating, electric fires etc.

9. The woeful insufficiency of Britain’s energy programme, and the madness of EU alternative form targets.

These present potential opportunities for UKip and both the larger Parties, although rather more for Labour than the Conservatives.

But by far the biggest impacts globally will be the geopolitical ramifications for the West in its continuing harassment of Russia; and the possibility of a turnaround in the price of oil. Total world energy use by sector comes out, at a rough rule of thumb, at industry 28%, transport 27% and residential 36%. The split’s been constant for the last fifteen years, but in a cold winter where the world is already in a deep slump, residential could easily reach 50%. This is when a rising oil/gas price can hit the voter directly in the wallet….and change voting intentions – with the same thing applying at the petrol stations for private transport.

If the Labour Party and its anti-neoliberal allies are on the ball, there will be myriad opportunities to show up the anti-social nature of the Coalition’s social policies. Older people in dire straits, those on benefits jobless, falling gdp, oilco profiteering, rocketing heating costs in the NHS and so on. Time will tell if the Eds are capable of exploiting this (I have my doubts) but when it comes to Vladimir Putin of the geopolitical stage, we are dealing with a chess master at the top of his game.

With winter already in full swing, Putin is reminding the West on a near daily basis that he can easily switch off Europe’s gas supplies, but although Russian gas heats over 30% of European homes, that isn’t going to help his economic situation at all. The power of colder weather allows Russia, as the key supplier of energy to Europe, to apply leverage. What Vlad grasps is that a cold winter gives him a better grip on leverage: leverage in the form of higher prices, higher volume needs, and thus the greater likelihood of negotiations with the West that ease his position. He is not, however, the only determining factor when it comes to price.

OPEC lives in warmer climes, and has other priorities. Worried about the competition from US shale gas and the potential for a world glut, at its last meeting, the oil-producers’ trade union voted not to cut production to shore up oil prices…because driving down the price of oil even further makes a nonsense of the already weak business argument for US fracked energy.

The above chart shows that, thus far, the price is continuing on its depression glut + manipulation course towards Hell in a bucket. However, the big difference between middle eastern and Russian oil – especially in winter – is its use by sector. Whereas 53% of the former goes to manufacturing and industry, as I noted earlier 50+% of Putin’s black gold heats the homes of voters.

My hunch is that this week or next, OPEC will cut production, and we’ll see at the very least a rally in oil. After that, if the ice-cold winter forecasts prove to be correct, good old fashioned supply and demand will take over.

For Putin, this sort of chess play is second nature. By contrast, the Labour leadership’s grasp of electoral planning is not of the best. Images of young people shivering without jobs and stories of aged death rate increases plus a rising oil price alongside more heating energy use ought to produce a Winter of Discontent sufficient to make Miliband a shoo-in for Number Ten.

But then you have the Scottish Play – it’s colder up there too – and Mr Salmond already capitalising on post-referendum surges in support plus the continuing oil-ownership issue….and the Ed Miller Band facing the likelihood of being wiped out north of the Border….and a seceding Scotland condemning him to permanent Opposition in what’s left of the United Kingdom.

Last but not least, Nigel Farage is, I’m sure, already preparing this year’s Somerset Flood ‘the EU doncha hate ’em?’ spectacular for some time in late January/early February. This time he will lump 500% of the blame onto Ed Miliband (the architect of our idiotic energy strategy) and the other 500% onto the EU, who “forced him to do it”. It’s a win-win for Nige, who will of course naturally use 1000% of his leverage, he having once been a future derivatives trader himself.   ( ;-)

At the Weekend Slog: Curtains – why hanging is too good for them.