Slog US economics/finance sources were Bearish this morning about the American private sector jobs report for January

Doubts are growing (and not before time) about the ‘real’ nature of economic recovery in the US. While most informed UK economy-watchers continue to aver that there is no ‘real’ private employment/output recovery – beyond Government QE and relief programmes – on this side of the Pond, The Slogger spoke with several reliable opinion-formers late last night our time, and in the last half-hour regarding data signs in the US. Leaks are now firming up speculation that the ADP (non-farm labour) heads-up will show somewhere between 35-50,000 job losses last month.

The formal announcement is expected around 1.15 pm our time.
UPDATE: The number (according to ADP) was actually 22,000. One of the nice things about (one’s informants) being wrong is that – in exactly the same way as when they’re right – nobody remembers anyway. A few blistering words have been exchanged via Satellite since the official output from ADP, but in fairness this is what the Moleyanks point out:
1. The median expectancy was around a 30,000 drop among pundits yesterday.
2. There is a bizarre bit in the data about ADP having ‘overstated the Labor Department’s estimate of private payroll losses by 500,000 in the six months to December’. The estimates have therefore been revised downwards ever since. Just because the Labor Dept says so. And of course, the Labor Dept would say so.

That said, for me two things are very important in this data set,now we know what it ‘is’ in carefully chosen commas: first, the report suggested a decrease of 60,000 workers in manufacturers and construction…whereas service providers took on 38,000 workers. Sounds like the same old same old to me. And second, the US economy has lost net 7.2 million jobs since the recession began just over two years ago. That loss is unequalled in the post-World War II era: will it ever be recouped? We’ll have to wait and see.