The deeper the mire into which Gordon Brown’s reputation sinks, the more New Labour seems to narrow the gap.
It’s never easy to explain fully what opinion polls mean, but those of the last ten days seem at first sight to defy logical analysis. The more obviously staged the Piers Morgan ‘interview’, the more unconvincing Mandelson’s praise for the PM on Marr, the more heavily the evidence piles up that Gordon Brown is utterly unfitted to run a country….the more David Cameron’s lead disappears.
In truth, there are three possible interpretations – but no way of proving any of them beyond doubt:
1. UK voters of a certain bent and IQ are now so totally lacking in any discernment, every attempt (no matter how corny and ham-fisted) to make the obviously counterfeit look genuine is likely to succeed.
2. The voters hate the idea of a Tory Government even more than they hate the current collection of hobgoblins.
3. The Cameroons are running the most inept, tentative and generally lacklustre campaign in the history of British politics.
My money is on all three, in no particular order. But there is a fourth possibility, which isn’t mutually exclusive from the above: that the electors won’t give power to any of them…and are looking for a hung Parliament to create a crisis.
To which my gloomy answer is that they won’t get it (the Tories would rule with tacit Libdem support) and even if it did happen, the crisis is coming with or without a hung Parliament.