ANALYSIS: Car knocks down Europe, deflates world.

Markets, pundits and lenders insisting on EU reform are like
alcoholics telling fat people to diet.

There can be no doubt any more that the eurozone (and frankly, the whole EU project) is a hypocritical, over-regulated, undemocratic and corrupt Leviathan with a turning circle of two hundred light years. But reading some of the pompous advice being handed out by dysfunctional folks around the Globe over the last week or so, I’m left muttering “Physician heal thyself”.

Yesterday, the Slog published its own small-scale study describing sentiment among objective professionals. While that can be useful for piercing the opaque bubble of spin surrounding everything these day, it is laughable to hear Wall Street calling eurozone lending ‘a no-go area’ and ‘losing creditor trust’ after some of the awful crookery, mismanagement and bonkers crowd behaviour that that been the hallmark of capitalist finance over the last year.

I’m told, for example, that Chinese leader Hu Jintao lectured Secretary Clinton this week on the subject of eurozone fiscal indiscipline. Not only does this suggest Mr Hu’s geography is a bit hazy, it’s a bit rich coming from a leadership which appears to have only two economic speeds – Full Ahead Both and Dead Stop.

Reform may be called for in Europe, but bankers have changed little or nothing about their behaviour since 2008: still getting big bonuses, still selling debt to people who can’t afford it – and as of the last few weeks, getting back into credit default swaps (CDSs) big-time.

Having been riddled with toxic debt borrowed by Elmer Grits for his tree house three years ago, the banking boys and big sovereign bond-buyers now find themselves with billion-dollar write offs because the collateral appears to be three goats and a fishing boat. So out comes the same tired old game of Russian roulette minus only the empty cylinder: CDSs soared this month, and this March just gone, Business Week insisted that ‘if Europe curtails the use of [CDS] and other derivatives, it will hurt, not help, the continent’s sickly economies’.

That may be true as a form of short-term pain alleviation, but when will capitalist finance catch on to the rules saying (a) if you need a hedge that badly, then don’t lend the money in the first place; and (b) once every debt held by everyone is bad, CDS as a practice is just a gigantic game of NIMBY: “Here’s a parcel, pass it on and make it snappy…jeeez, that stinks”.

Another belter for me was to hear a senior assurance executive telling me she “couldn’t possibly risk shareholder and client monies in the eurozone any more”, overlooking the fact that her sector has over-invested in more bubbles than a West Ham supporters’ Club gala. It still boggles my mind to tot up how many of these institutions (which are supposed to be guaranteeing all those yachts and beaches we see in the TV commercials) have piled into a commercial property market where every last signpost says ‘Cliff Dead Ahead’. I’d lose sleep about this, but since I consolidated my pensions and went drawdown, these clowns don’t have my money any more.

Last but not least, of course, there is Secretary Geithner in Europe telling everyone to get digging into that deficit mountain, when there don’t seem to be any JCBs for hire – and the US is busy piling more expenditure on top of its own Mt Rushmore. It probably escaped most people’s attention this week, but money supply in the States fell from $14.2 trillion to $13.9 trillion in the three months to April, amounting to an annual rate of contraction of 9.6pc. That’s 1930s mega-deflation stuff.

The reality (as ever) is that governments and bankers have a mutual need-and-greed dependency that will always shun reform until things are really desperate….by which time it may be too late even for them. It really makes little difference whether this be an EU strangled by bureacracy while carrying a millstone of welfare, or a China blind to currency realities, or Friedmanite capitalism unable to grasp that its system needs another driver beyond universal debt. The result will be the same: Kingdoms of the Blind where any one-eyed lunatic could suddenly become King.

The global economy is too damn big and mutually interdependent considering the enormous range of wealth creation cycles in play. As we’ve been banging on about for seven years now, it is not the future and it never was. The sooner those in charge work this out, the better everyone will be in the long term.