As exclusively predicted here, oh, ages ago now, Fitch is turning out to be the most trigger-happy of the credit agencies about the UK’s outlook as a risk. I’m afraid I share their pessimism. Fitch gave a stinging verdict on UK deficit action, and the head of the UK trading desk at Travelex Global Mark Bolsom rightly pointed out, “The fact that Fitch has felt the need to comment on the UK deficit again is an indication that they are still considering downgrading the UK’s sovereign debt rating. This will turn up the pressure on the new coalition Government”.
It certainly will. The UK has – by some distance – the worst debt to gdp ratio among AAA countries. One thing that should be noted is how the former Government has completely stopped presenting a view suggesting that this really is nothing to worry about. That’s significant, in being the final piece in the prosecution case arguing that they came out with all that bollocks just to try and get reelected: otherwise they’d still be following that line, would they not? Instead, there hasn’t been a peep out of Harman about it ever since: Hattie is fully employed ensuring that the next Labour Cabinet is half man, half woman. It will, if nothing else, make a change from half-mad. Or not.
Fitch made some observations which – while Page One fiscal economics – are unlikely to make page one of many UK titles. Most significantly, the credit agency pointed out how wimpy the suggested cuts to date are compared to those being instituted by Athens and Madrid.
Spanish Unions have given the government there notice that there will be strikes, and the Fred Kites in Greece are vowing to step up theirs. Early comments from Unite and other UK Unions suggest that here too, the old mass-production dinosaurs are game for a punch-up. The IMF stepped in this morning to chuck a little more petrol on the flames by suggesting the latin debtors step up the speed of deficit reduction.
The response on the Athens bourse was a further plunge towards towards the cellar. In Brussels, meanwhile, the men jacking up their budget by 6% are gaily speeding towards obligatory submission of spending plans to them by member States…before their own legislatures get sight of them. The EU’s gonkocrats have their antennae removed as a condition of employment, so their hope of success in this endeavour is only to be understood. Suffice to say that the idea is about as welcome as Japanese knotweed in a bonzai pot.
Nobody knows where the European fiasco will end – except in tears. Who winds up shedding them is still a moot point: could be libertarians watching more and more unelected power going to Brussels, or the European Central Bank stuffed to the ceiling with junk, or Angela Merkel losing the next election, or lenders, or quite possibly absolutely everyone from George Osborne to Nicolas Sarkozy.
After two days of fine food and fulmination, this week’s summit of Euro-envoy people in Luxembourg scored nul point in concluding that the EU needs ‘more centralised planning of national budgets’ – an output akin to agreeing that the guys in the sub on the seabed need more oxygen.
To be fair, they also said some growth would be good, and that not all member States would have the same degree of austerity at the same time. Oh, and Estonia’s entry into the eurozone was formally scheduled for next year. There will be dancing in the streets of Tallin tonight, but the main reason everyone in the EU politburo seems happy to go ahead with the plan is that Estonia isn’t very big. Nigel Rendell, senior emerging-markets analyst at RBC Capital Markets in London, said that the country is so tiny “it isn’t going to make any difference in the general scheme of things”. I suppose it’s as good a reason as any not to worry.
What this discussion jolly didn’t even touch upon is why a Union founded on sleaze, delusion, endless bureaucracy and hot air has even the ghost of a chance of cutting costs, looking decisive and competing against other power blocs not quite so wedded to fluffy social democracy. It’s very tempting here in Slogger’s Roost to simply sit back quietly and watch the whole daft edifice implode, but I won’t be able to resist such a long-running and rich seam of bollocks for long.





