ANALYSIS: What lies ahead – an article to avoid, and one to read.

No, it’s not dead…it’s just resting.

In the spirit of a free-flowing Internet (while we still have one) I commend this Huffington Post piece to all Sloggers; it’s well researched and full of commonsense. Its message is: this ain’t no ordinary recession. The graphs speak for themselves.

And while I enjoy 90% of the Torygraph’s output, I suggest you give this one a miss, as (a) it’s by Jeremy Warner, and (b) it is denial based entirely on the basis of ‘this is stuff I don’t understand, and therefore it cannot be happening’.

Secretly, I’m giving you the link to this second article because I’d like you to share my astonishment. The best thing in it is, ‘But outside Ireland and Japan, where is the evidence for deflation? No doubt there are other countries I’ve missed, but excepting Japan, there is as yet no obvious liquidity trap among the main advanced economies….’

Well, er, the US. And then there’s Greece, which – being unable to devalue – must be heading that way. In fact, while we’re at it, the whole eurozone outside Germany is in that boat…and even there, Geli Merkel is reducing demand by bashing her unwilling subjects with austerity.

China. I mean, if you’ve nowhere to export to, you have to stop your own population from consuming. And with a floated Yuan gaining in value….

Yes but, apart from Japan, the US, the EU, and China, I mean – what has devaluation ever done for us?

It is all a bit Pythonic. But then, finance and economics today are one long Monty Python sketch. You see, nobody expects the Spanish Deflation.