EU’s IRISH STRESS TEST: The case of the extraordinary shrinking shortfall.


What an odd place the EU is. Herewith the events of the Slog’s day so far.

11.14 am: middle-to-senior Irish Governmental source tells me the Irish banking capital injection required is €32.5 billion. (“That’s off the record, but official”).

16:30 pm: RTE coverage of the stress test results begins, and seems to suggest that the figure is €24 billion.

18:28 pm: The BBC’s Robert Peston says the number is €20 billion, but could be €24 billion ‘depending on the economy and interest rates’.

18:35: Slog completely confused, given that (a) the original tip here in Slogger’s Roost was €32.5 billion (rather exact figure, as these things go) but (b) five hours later it’s over €8 billion less and (c) Robert Petson then starts boffing on about ‘potential future losses’ without mentioning capital injection requirements at all.

Who are we to believe? Well, let’s take a look at other sources as the evening (GMT) went on.

The FT this evening is saying €24 billion. It added that Allied Irish Bank which had previously been told to raise an additional €5.3bn, must now raise €13.3bn; that Bank of Ieland must raise €5.2bn, and that Irish Permant must raise €4 billion, and Educational Building Society €1.5bn. And yes, that figure does add up to €24 billion euros.

So, back we went to the Dublin source. Much chuckling of a Blarneyesque nature. The general line (much of which was not for publication) was one of yes, the figure is €32.5 billion, but not to worry because this is coming from ‘one of the stabilisation funds’. But very hush-hush. Not be be talked about.

So we won’t.