New York District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr

DA’s political ambitions a factor: but is he holding the right cards?

Now that Christine Lagarde has the IMF job in the bag, it’s been interesting to observe an increasing number of leaks from ‘people close to the IMF’. The Slog was the fortunate recipient of one such leak over the weekend, with support from another  source close to the DSK legal team.

This seems to  reflect the Strauss-Kahn trend in mainstream US media. The New York Times this morning carries a long analysis (well worth a read if you have the time) which also refers to IMF sources. And some studied leaking was being undertaken by Dominic Strauss-Kahn’s legal team over the weekend. Several US papers and confidential sources are claiming to ‘know’ that DSK will plead not guilty (hardly news), he will say a biased environment was created by the unwarranted nature of his arrest (correct), and the dual focus of the defence will be (a) to discredit Nafissatou Diallo and (b) say the sex was consensual.

The Slog knew all this a week ago. But now I have learned that the forensics in the case – beyond the maid’s uniform – are supportive of the defence, not the prosecution. It struck me as odd two weeks ago when Assistant DA Artie McConnell made a big deal about the DNA on the uniform (presumably spermatozoa) but then remained resolutely quiet about the rest of it. I have now been assured that first, signs of forced sexual entry are absent (the charge isn’t rape anyway); second, none of DSK or Diallo’s clothing is torn in any way; and crucially, both accuser and accused’s fingernails are free of DNA evidence to connect them.

This last is an important thing to know: it is strongly indicative of the sex having been consensual – whereas sperm on the maid’s uniform offers no proof of consensuality either way – only physical connection.

As old-fashioned male chauvinists would have said in another age, “So then, she didn’t put up much of a fight. Hmm”. This isn’t fair of course (when seriously threatened, most of us cave in pretty quickly) but although diminutive, I understand Ms Diallo is not slight. However, it begins to make even attempted rape look like a dodgy charge: daft as this may seem, Strauss-Kahn could say “I wanted oral sex, that’s all – and yes, we had oral sex” and on the basis of these forensics, the jury would probably be directed to find him not guilty on the main count.

Of course, the former IMF boss isn’t about to admit anything. But although his previous behaviour suggests that the bloke works on a sort of  ‘safety in numbers’ strategy when it comes to seeking out sex, ‘forcible’ sex is more his style than knives and threats. His main modus operandum, in truth, is to ask shamelessly, but retreat if turned down – and his former bordello partners say he was a gentle lover.

On the broader backcloth to the case, the observed behaviour of those involved (and information coming my way) still seem to say that, at best, there are some very happy coincidences in all of it; and at worst, they say “set-up”.

The number of leaks now being attributed to the IMF’s middling ranks are part of this. The Slog’s piece of last Thursday seems, if nothing else, to have teased out some interesting observations…albeit only offered in private. One such emailed me later that day to assert that the piece was ‘very close’ to what’s been happening, adding ‘I think there will be an acquittal now Strauss-Kahn is dead in the water’. Another observed, ‘Sarko has converted France into a vassal State….[the result will be]….Not guilty after a show-trial, but with reputation in tatters’. Both informants are well-connected, senior financial players with sources in the IMF. The second has links to the CIA, and named a very senior ‘not entirely retired really’ player as likely to be involved. As yet, I can’t name this person for obvious reasons: suffice to say he is high-profile, with alarmingly close connections to the Grand Fromage in the Elysee Palace.

The Slog’s original New York source is also a financier by profession. To date, on this and other issues covered by The Slog this year, the source has been proved 100% right. Late Friday afternoon, a Washington contact confirmed that Christine Lagarde had always been the preferred Geithner candidate. The New York source had this to say last night:

“Like I said, DSK out of the game…onto the next problem. But I’m not sure about an acquittal being on Vance’s [the DA in New York] agenda. For sure it would be on (Marc-Olivier) Strauss-Kahn’s agenda, because this is his brother we’re talking about here. But Cyrus Vance comes from a famous political family. I know for a fact he has big, big ambitions. For him to bring down a major member of the banking class would be a giant leap along that road….certainly an open invite into the Congress, and from there, who knows?”

Even when dirty tricks have a clear objective, things can go badly wrong. But it looks increasingly to me like what we’re looking at in this instance is an America in crisis badly needing to get more control over a major lending institution. There also seems a reasonable chance (and I’m working on this bit) that the deed was done with the tacit approval of senior political players in France. Like Pakistan – only bigger: and for much bigger stakes.

Stay tuned.