There is a missing link in this Brexit drama, and it is this: why is Olly Robbins still being allowed to defy the will of Remainers, Leavers and Parliament by negotiating without a chaperone in Brussels? And why does May seem so utterly confident despite the fact that she is surrounded inside The Alamo?
Although my last four days were passed in a wonderful place – utterly determined to take a complete rest from ‘Brexit, the surreal Months’ – I was lucky enough to be spending time with somebody intelligent and informed enough to discuss interpretations of the general drift towards British tutelage under the evil eye of the European Union.
There is of course the old Conan Doyle mantra which states “When all other possibilities for explanation have been dismissed, the one that remains has to be the truth – however bizarre it may seem”. Doyle’s hero Sherlock Holmes lived in a gentler age where the shades of grey added up to far less than fifty – it is harder than ever in 2018 to dismiss any possibility completely – but I had gone into this long weekend looking for the answer to one question above all others: why would an experienced and thoroughly opportunistic politician, when faced with an open goal, thwack the ball back into her own half?
Consider: even the pro-EU arch-Remainer Tony Blair now calls the May deal “a capitulation”. Remainer people I’ve nearly fallen out with about Brexit have expressed to me the view that they find it “disgraceful” that a mere, unelected Whitehall civil servant seems somehow to have more power than the entire British Cabinet. Many will have seen the Spectator piece about the ‘forty hidden horrors’ of Brexit à la Theresa, and been genuinely shocked by the degree to which her “deal” makes the 1940 French surrender to Hitler seem an act of defiance by comparison.
The Prime Minister is signing off on a vassalage (and threatening a plague of locusts upon any and all naysayers) that would snatch vindictive Remain punishment from the jaws of Brexit victory. It is, to be blunt, a thinly disguised adaptation of the humiliation of Greece four years ago.
The Parliamentary numbers show pretty conclusively that it should not pass muster – and will be almost certainly thrown out. Even if only 27 out of the 50 Tory Leaver rebels vote against the Agreement, Labour, the SNP and the DUP will vote the same way. Of the 290 Remainer Tories still allegedly loyal to May, it seems to me inconceivable that all of them are such neoliberally convinced globalists that they’d be happy to see Britain anally raped and then dragged through the mud via a ‘deal’ that does three things at once: keep Britain officially in the EU, restrict Britain’s ability to make trade deals, but bar Britain from any legal or financial influence in the EU whatsoever.
Last but not least, having forced this derisory act of cowardice upon the British People, the eventual awareness of what’s been done will leave the Conservatives massacred and split, Labour static and split, Scotland split, Tory support from the DUP absent for a generation and ‘New UKIP’ as a dark horse – but unlikely even then to raise their vote’s critical mass to the point where it could be kingmaker in a post-Election Commons.
Whichever way one scopes this anarchic probability out, it has to be infinitely worse than May’s potential Plan B following the 2017 Election – viz, taking on board the existential weakness of the EU, and going all out to broaden her popularity among the electorate by driving a harder and more obdurate bargain on the return of clear sovereign controls, unfettered trading beyond the EU….with, in turn, no acceptance of a “divorce fee” which exists solely in the fevered imaginations of Bruxellian Empire fantasists and Philip Hammond.
While this would have ruffled the Remainer Conservative feathers, it would have resulted in marginalised Blairites, a Corbynite rump, a loyal DUP, a UKIP happy to stand back, and the SNP with neither a mandate in Scotland nor a brokerage influence at Westminster.
So, faced with a tricky road to victory for her and hegemony for the Tories, Theresa May chose a route through the quicksand-riddled minefield to surrender and anarchy. The way you do.
I think the time has come to ditch the Daft Stubborn Bint interpretation, and look for another (far more unpleasant) analysis that starts from a different assumption: that the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland has been stripped of her power in a silent coup. Stripped of her power, and focused on other considerations that go way beyond any delusions of grandeur a small island perched off the coast of Europe might or might not have. But – having herself accepted years ago that geopolitical, security, military and power-bloc diktats Rule OK – she can rule UK, and be part of this unspoken, invisible Alt State takeover.
Over the last few weeks, she has worked among and with senior EU, Whitehall, MI5 and NATO officials. One by one, Raab, the DUP and the Cabinet have been starved of information and presented with sudden leaps. Ministers have resigned, their replacements given only honorary power, and all talk of renegotiating anything with the EU has been declared off-message. Alone in Brussels, Olly Robbins is mapping out a detailed deconstruction of British sovereignty with zero accountability. Everyone but the members of this group – which is determined that, come what may, the EU must not fail, that the EU shall have its army, and that NATO will tighten its grip on Russian aims – has been frozen out.
A bigger game is now in play. Government sources leaked to the Mirror, Express & Mail yesterday that the Army is standing by to deal with any and all “disturbances, violence confusion and supply problems” if the UK leaves with No Deal. But the truth is, the unelected ranks of the Alternative State are determined to push through the May deal whatever it takes.
There is, nevertheless, a veiled threat in the leaks: the oldest excuse in the world, bringing in the army to restore order.
Those behind May are the same people who brooked no opposition by pushing through the last bombing of Syria while Parliament was in recess, and then invented spurious arguments about constitutional probity. They are the same people who have been feeding madder and madder fear lies to a willing media set over the last two years, while bankrolling new pro-EU Parties across the board. Among their number are Soros, Macron, the Bourses, globalist business, central banks, multinational banks, international news media, intelligence agencies and the oil kings. Together, they have convinced both the City, the Financial Times and senior spokespeople among the CBI that they shall be part of the Promised Land flowing with silk and money.
It looks increasingly likely that these are the people giving Theresa May her air of invincibiliy, and the Tory Whips everything they need to have confidence in the passage of an EU/UK deal. We are at a pivotal moment. On paper, the Brussels Diktat should fall at the first fence in Parliament. If it doesn’t, then those who are awake will realise that we may be in even deeper trouble than we thought.