Caja Madrid was in gung-ho mode just three short years ago. Boss Carlos Stilianopulous said he preferred ‘a solid institution’ to rapid growth. In order to add some underpinning to his in reality less than solid foundations, Carlos launched into the RMBS sector with three billion euros, a move described by Euromoney at the time as ‘a drop in the ocean’. The launch was effected jointly with another paragon of Scottish prudence, RBS.

With the benefit of hindsight of course, one might think, “Hmm – boss has Greek name, bullish outlook, working with Fred Goodwin….a disaster in the making”. As indeed it was. But one doesn’t need hindsight to spot other things in that 2007 Euromoney piece.

Shrugging off suggestions that fifty-five billion euros tied up in the mortgage market might suggest something of an overdependence problem, Carlos said “The mortgage market remains very attractive to us”. The bank would ‘securitize excess collateral’ said the boss….by going into RMBS. Right.

Yet during the previous two years, the amount of costumer deposits required to fund the lending programme had leapt from 15-22 billion euros. That would be ‘reined in’ said Senor Stilianopulous. Nobody asked him how. Or what might happen in the event of falling property values and reduced interest rates making deposits less attractive.

I record this obscure episode not to go ha-ha-ha, although I did go ha-ha-ha when I read it this morning. I post this salutary tale to remind everyone that what officialdom, business leaders, Federal treasurers, estate agents, Chancellors and bankers say to the media is complete bollocks; and it is so because there is an agenda. The secret of foresight is not to read everything – it is to read everything with an open mind and a jaundiced eye.

Growth looking steady but secure says Bernanke. Bollocks. AIA is good value said McGrath. Bollocks. The oil is fully capped says Hayward. Bollocks. We’ve been repaying the debt since 2002 says Mandelson. Bollocks. We will not be dragged into eurozone bailouts said Brown. Bollocks. Goldman innocent of all 429 charges says Blankfein. Bollocks. Shared Appreciation Mortgages are a wonderful idea said Peter Mandelson in 2000. Boll…er, hang on a minute: I don’t remember that one. For SAMs (as they were infamously called) turned out to be a usurious and thoroughly bad idea for the mugs that took them out.

So why would the man in charge of business at the time have said such a thing? The Slog is on the case.