SPECIAL ECONOMICS BOLLOCKS DECONSTRUCTION NUMBER
Analysis without wild conspiracy theory. Yesterday’s piece at Testosterone Pit (which I only just got around to reading, tch tch) is a top class destruction of the Obamite/US Fed tosh about the real unemployment rate in America – and how, having been found out, the Fed is piling on yet more propaganda to rubbish any suggestion to the contrary. Methinks the lady doth protest too much, although of course we’re still unclear as to whether its the Yellen lady or the bearded Bernanke who’s calling the shots. Maybe it’s the bearded lady.
The unbelievable ECB tries to defend the untenable EU. Reuters reports that excess ezone liquidity is set to fall from €186bn to about €140bn this week due to two effects: the banks took a net €20bn less in new repos and the ECB successfully sterilised its SMP holdings of €175bn, which produced an additional net liquidity withdrawal of €24bn over the previous week. Further, Bloomberg reports that Draghi is now seeking the explicit support of the Bundesbank for ending the sterilisation policies. Yes, I think bankers should be sterilised too, but to be serious here for a second, if Mario is reduced to crawling on his tummy to Jens Weidman…then things just have to be desperate.
Slog mad conspiracy theory gains traction. And last but not least – you know me Per, I can’t resist jerking my ego a little – I offer your a truly splendid piece from McLellan Financial a week ago that avers ‘The chart this week updates one I showed back in December 2012, exploring how the spread between the 10-year and 1-year Treasury yields can provide a leading indication for where stock prices are going to go approximately 22 months later….This yield spread model said that the stock market should have peaked back in late 2011. But the continuation of QE has kept the bull market going on longer than it was supposed to, just like in 2000 and 2007….The yield spread bottomed in July 2012, and so 22 months forward equates ideally to May 2014..’
See Slogpost of a fortnight ago suggesting
‘…..a confirmation of other equally compelling trends. The craze for glitz-brick top end property, the rush to buy arable farming land, the uncanny degree to which most of the national political and banking élites and big-throw dice directionalisers seem to have future horizons that don’t stretch beyond May 2014. I’m referring to tips about Hillary Clinton expecting a crash “in the summer”, about the blasé Brussels-am-Berlin attitude to Greek default on the one hand, and Draghi’s desperate brag-hand plot in relation to Italy and Spain. About Cameron playing for time on the EU in/out referendum. And a host of other titbits here and there down the line…’
And also this piece from three weeks ago
And even more also, this piece from four months ago.
The future’s in The Slog. Allegedly. : -))