The Slog studies the timelines involved in the Shanghai composite’s overnight rally…and proves it had nothing to do with Western rallies. While the West is selling it as ‘problem hyped, now solved’, Chinese insiders are confident that the PBOC bought itself some breathing space – and nothing more.
OK, now pay attention: this is how the global bourse ‘system’ works. As we’ve known ever since the days of McDoom being Chancellor and then Top Turkey in the UK, its a globalglobalglobalglobal world and that’s the future so accept it.
But I posted yesterday about how when something goes bum over nose in China, then it’s a distant problem and nothing to do with us. Thus proving perhaps that it isn’t a global world after all.
As you can see from yesterday’s NYSE performance, the wise owls on Wall Street said (after panicking the day before) “This does not affect us in any way so we’re going to pull ourselves together”. Which is what they did. Mission accomplished. So obviously they agree with me…when it suits them.
Now when all the NYSE gains were in and guaranteed after the close, it was still only 5am in Shanghai. The Shanghai Composite has two sessions – in local time, 9.30 am – 11.30 am; and then in the afternoon, 1pm – 3pm. Shanghai is 12 hours ahead of New York. So when Shanghai went to work, everyone there knew the Western markets had done well. This is how the Shanghai reacted:
It opens, drops, rallies, then drops (testing the all-time recent low) then rallies, and is saved by the bell. More intriguing is what happens after lunch:
By 1pm, the index is even less impressed with the West’s steadier hand than it was: it plunges straight through the low tester….and then suddenly (at 7.30 am CET, when it’s 1.30 am in New York and even they are asleep) it leaps up to finish the day 5.3% up. As there is no correlation at all here between that swift change of heart and events in the west, then it isn’t a global world and China doesn’t GAF about the US or the EU. QED, if you’ll pardon the pun.
Which is preposterous, because of course it does: these are its trading partners, for crying out loud: and you can already see that, as the West’s today unfolds, the tune is changing to “nothing to worry about because China has settled down”. China has nothing to do with us when it’s in the mire, but reassures us when it’s in recovery mode.
That’s how the global bourse system works, see? Clear as mud.
But just so we’re really clear about this: every last net point gained by the Shanghai index overnight was achieved in the last 65 minutes of trading.
This morning all the business sites are giving us ‘Shanghai recovers after Western markets rally’. And CNBC is telling us that ‘Dax opens strongly in light of China rally’. The usual ‘heads we win and tails they lose’ coin flip scam. But none of that reflects what really happened.
Somebody or something provided a huge buy signal. Foreign manipulation? Highly unlikely – only a tiny number of fang wois are allowed to trade on it. You have at least think about pointing a finger at the PBOC…that is, the Beijing politburo. And that’s certainly what the local experts think:
“It looks like the government intervened in the market during the last moments, so it’s hard to claim that the market has stabilised,” said Fu Xuejun, a strategist at Huarong Securities.”
This problem, as the Americans say, is so not over. Hang on to these key conclusions in order avoid further concussion:
- Wall Street blames China when things go badly, but insists that it cannot do damage to US markets and yet it’s a global world.
- However, China’s trade index with both the US and EU is 21%, so of course it does matter if China implodes: and China is imploding but it is being hidden by Politburo censorship, draconian regulation of all selling and POBC direct intervention to buy anything that falls.
Thus, you can no more trust the Shanghai as an indicator when it rallies than you can trust the Western bourses when they go up.
IABATO! – It’s all bollocks, and that’s official.
The Slog 