Constructing and examining the less than perfect options available to the Conservative Party today, it seems to me obvious that persevering with Prime Minister Pillowcase can only lead to leadership chaos and the potential for Corbyn to take charge of Number Ten. Will the old Nasties tell her to go? If they have any thinking material left between their ears, they must do so immediately.
The big question now: will Tory Brexiteers walk the talk when it comes to splitting the Conservative Party? And while it is a times difficult to tell chicken from egg, a lot of what happens next is going to come down to the media in general, and Party/Brexit/May opinion poll scores in particular.
It goes without saying that the globalist Alt State media have gone into overdrive since the Chequers “agreement” last Saturday – or as BoJo might remark, polished turd day. CNBC was quick to headline David Davis as “easily replaceable”, until Boris resigned – at which point it was Bloomberg to the rescue by saying that “Theresa May does not need the Foreign Secretary to make Brexit work”. So far – pretty much across the piece beyond the tabloid Right press – there are still those who say Brexiteer MPs will not vote down the Government. Even the Telegraph (which excoriates May’s hash of the Brexit process in a way I’ve rarely seen at the Torygraph) was largely doubtful about the survival of principle over political survival.
Mrs Pillowcase herself – who has the benefit of her Whips’ calculations – takes a different view, and for once I think she may well be right. Having been told bluntly last Sunday that she could no longer command a majority in the Commons, the Prime Minister cycled down to see her backbenchers yesterday evening and made an urgent plea for them to back the Party right or wrong, because the Labour Party is gaining ground. Actually, it has overtaken the Conservatives in the latest poll.
Nothing like using your own unpopularity to get your own way, that’s what I say: and the research surveys done since Chequers leave little doubt of just how hopeless her performance has been.
64% of Britons do not trust her to run Brexit negotiations – up 31 percentage points from when we last asked the question in March 2017. A study done by Sky shows that only 22% now trust her to get the best possible deal from Brussels: just three months ago, that figure was 54%.
Even on her home turf (says Conservative Home) Tory activists believe by two to one that the Cabinet’s Chequers Brexit deal would be bad for Britain.
But in the wider sphere of Brexit, the country – despite strenuous and almost completely dishonest propaganda pouring out from the EUNATO bankrolled Remain quarters day and night – is still split right down the middle. Overall, when taken to a forced-choice question, although a mere 7% of Brits believe a federalised European gov would be a good thing, and only 1 in 5 want to ignore the Referendum and stay in the EU, if there were another referendum on offer, the polls suggest the result would be 48/48 Leave and Stay with only 4% undecided.
Another referendum would thus merely produce a stalemate, but don’t be surprised if May the can-kicker resorts to that as a last throw of the dice from her bunker.
The real bottom-line is this: can the appeal to keep Labour out work for Mrs Pillowcase? My view this morning is that no, it can’t. At some point in the near future, she will have to get the Commons to buy into her Chequers Blueprint. I’m told that even if only 30 Tories vote it down, that will be enough to defeat her, because both Keir Starmer and Corbyn the YesNo Turncoat have already made it clear that the Labour policy will be to have a fully whipped policy to reject the plan. I’m sure given a few days, the LibLeft spinners can think of a rationale for that move; but the actual reason is that both Momentum and the circle around Jesus of Islington now think they can bury the Tories once an election is called.
A defeat on the ‘Chequers Bill’ would be seen by most as a no-confidence vote. Even if Theresa Mayflower-Pillowcase von Kankicker limps on, it would only be for a week at most, because on 20th July Michel Barnier gives his verdict on the Chequers proposal. It’s already obvious this is going to be a thumbs-down.
What I offer up now is only conjecture; but it is based on common sense and the mind-concentrating survival instinct that always kicks in sooner or later with the Tory Party.
If they want to avoid a messy snap election straight after an even messier leadership fight – and win some time to regain the respect of their loyalist voters and grass roots – the only option the Conservative Big Beasts have is to tell the PM what Thatcher’s Cabinet told her: your position is untenable, you must resign. And they must tell her this right away.
From the Tory standpoint, it is not ideal: but it is the least of many evils available to them. Let us now see what this Party of chancers does.