It is the assumption of many Brexiteers that the best result in tonight’s Conservative vote of confidence would be the humiliating defeat of Theresa May, and her immediate resignation. I doubt very much that is going to happen. But given the DUP’s importance in the Brexit withdrawal, her survival could well lead swiftly to a Parliamentary vote of no confidence in the Government as a whole. I continue to maintain that a General Election is the best way to be rid of the Prime Minister…and stall the creeping process of a Brexit without exit.
The televisual May confidence vote news spin on UK channels thus far this morning is trying to convince us of three things. First, there is a strong element of suggesting that the Tory rebels have ejaculated prematurely, and Mother Theresa will win the vote easily. Second, that this will give the Prime Minister carte blanche to Carry on Remaining for a whole year. And third, that the leadership contest triggered last night is an act of irresponsible Conservative infighting.
In short, that the Remainoids hold all the cards, and thus resistance is futile.
The Slog’s response is IABATO*.
In my opinion, all thinking Brexiteers should pray for tonight’s vote to embarrass Mrs May without removing her.
The original DUP position (after the PM had in 2017 gone for a mandate but instead received an electoral mauling) was that it would support her minority acclamation on everyday Parliamentary business – as long as she didn’t cross nationality Red Lines in the Brexit negotiations.
Since when, of course, she has crossed more red lines than a 1970s Lambeth Councillor trying to defect to Beijing.
So whereas, at the outset, the pledge was to save the Government from defeat – in return for assurances about Ulster’s undiluted position as part of mainland Britain – the DUP is letting it be known around Westminster now that, if Mrs May is reelected Leader tonight, the deal is off. In short, were Labour to then move a No Confidence motion into the broader backcloth of the Commons as a whole, it would vote with Labour.
That – plus even 30 out of the 48 Tory rebels doing the same, or abstaining – would render a Parliamentary No Confidence vote in the Government a probable success. Attention would turn then to the SNP, who are wary of a General Election with the tide turning against them in Scotland.
It is a tangled web we weave, when we practise to deceive.
* IABATO – It’s all Bollocks and that’s Official