Yesterday, I looked at the lessons of history in relation to Brexit and Brussels Commission behaviours. In this new post, I posit that Boris Johnson will not deliver a clean Brexit, and although he will probably win any ensuing election, the UK europhile élite will continue its fight to crush The People. But resistance to both Macron and the Commission is already widespread in Europe. A decency alliance of beast-starvers in Britain cooperating with organisations like the Gilets Jaunes could yet succeed where our legislators have so miserably failed.
Nobody has a crystal ball. However, past behaviours displayed by Brussels, Parliament, the Benn-Cooper alliance and Boris Johnson – plus some legal advice I’ve seen over the last 36 hours – suggest that a highly likely course of events would be as follows:
- Jolyon Maugham QC thinks Johnson could pass the Withdrawal Act – legislation needed for any Brexit deal to become law – by October 19. This, he feels, would supercede the Benn Act’s demand that the UK should not leave the EU without a deal. However, if the varied Parliamentary opposition to No Deal decided to try and stop any Brexit deal becoming law in principle by October 19th, they would shoot themselves in the foot and, technically, allow the Government to, um, leave with No Deal. “Gerrout of that,” as Eric Morecambe used to say.
- Dominic Raab seems confident that this (plus other large moth-holes in the hurriedly-passed Benn Act) mean that Britain can still leave without a Deal on October 31st. My Brussels source tells me the Commission is aware of this, and so the greatest likelihood is that we shall leave on that date with a deal. Confused? We’re only point at 2: do please pay attention.
- As yet there is no evidence whatsoever that any progress has been made on the hopeless sell-out May Withdrawal Agreement diktat beyond the Irish backstop. Both Leo Varadkar and the DUP are becoming panicky, and trying to soften their position on the issue. Bojo seems to have convinced himself that avoiding the backstop is enough to get a revised WA through Parliament. He could be right: but it will not be enough to mollify either Nigel Farage or the great majority of Brexiteers (including, I might add, me).
- As The Brexit Party has no existing MPs, all in all a deal will be struck with Brussels, the Tory Party will cling together about it, and we will leave the EU at the end of next month because the DUP and the rump of Blairite Labour will be enough to outvote Corbyn Labour and the LibDems.
- The problem with this as an outcome will be that almost nobody in the electorate will be satisfied that (a) we have left the EU or (b) the Deal is anything more than Brino. The Labour Left, the LibDems and TBP will scream for an early election. Boris Johnson will be keen to convert his dependence on other Parties into a working majority. So the chances are that there will be a general election.
- Without a Tory pact to work with, TBP will get millions of votes, but few if any seats. A substantial number of Remain Labour voters will switch to the LibDems, and many Leave Labour voters will vote for TBP. In Scotland, I suspect, the SNP would lose seats to the Conservatives; elsewhere, high-profile Boris-blocking Tories will be punished.
- Under the FPTP system favoured by the large Parties, anything near an exact outcome from that is near-impossible to discern: such will depend entirely on electoral alliances nearer the time, what Blair & Co do, the use of tactical voting by Brexiteers to punish Remainer MPs, and which existing Tories (if any) are denied the Whip. That said, in general terms I expect the main losers to be hard Brexiteers (because TBP votes will not convert into seats) the SNP, and Corbyn Labour, the main winners to be the LibDems, and the largest Party by some distance the Conservatives….but Johnson’s overall majority will still be slim.
- The bad news for people like me is that we will still have, I suspect, a clear Remain majority in Parliament, and the plotting between them and the bastards across the water will continue. The bad news for society is that Momentum will turn increasingly to violence, Labour will split more irrevocably, the Liberal Democrats will continue their campaign to re-apply to the EU….and the interim period between leaving and severing ties will still be ongoing.
- I expect that, at or just after this point, the now obviously doomed economies and global banking systems of the neoliberals will have a devastating effect. Brexit will, of course, get the blame for this….on the Left and in the media. But at the same time, economic disaster will put both Trump and Macron in a parlous position, the Italian mess will lead to an anarchic situation in that country, and rioting by both legal and illegal African migrants on mainland Europe will become a major problem.
- Such a degree of social unrest can only have one result: the death of Western civil liberties, the adoption of draconian Special Powers by governments, and the further incursion of socio-educational conformity…..unless a network of decency at ground level can come into being, and cut off the money supply of those élites trying to shape a corporacratic future “for all time”.
Since last Thursday, I have been travelling for an hour or two each day to contact, meet and talk to the Gilets Jaunes network here in France. It would not be accurate to say that the GJs’ leanings are consistent wherever one goes, but they have achieved two very important aims already: a sense of community and support for those whose lives are being blighted by neoliberal EU economics, and a systematic attempt wherever possible to reduce the supply of Macronic stealth taxation to Paris.
The result (not as yet even mentioned, let alone analysed, on British television) is a looming fiscal catastrophe for France. The AFT (Agence France Trésor) is putting out bromides about repeating 2018’s slightly lower budget deficit, but this is a fantasy. In March, the Government here forecast a 2.1% deficit (14% up on last year) but by August, this had shot up to 3.1% (36% up on last year). The simple gap between tax income and State spend in June was running at an eye-watering 34%. GJ actions and associated growth in the black economy are the main culprits for this, along with an economy that has been treading water since February.
The only option for the Trésor (which it is already using) is to increase debt to make up deficit. With a eurozone heading for eco-financial disaster and raised bond yields, this is a policy only ever going one way – to Hell in a hardcart.
I believe that the Gilets Jaunes have only scratched the surface of starving the beast. I will (publication censorship willing) be discussing this in future Slogposts. I would, of course, welcome any and all ideas that readers have.