John Ward August 28, 2014 Douglas Carswell exits the Tories

Douglas Carswell exits the Tories, will stand for Clacton in by-election

I should’ve twigged this when, three weeks ago, Douglas Carswell suddenly blocked me on Twitter. There are some who refer to Douglas as a libertarian, but that’s not the sort of thing libertarians do….and anyway, he isn’t one. But during that week, I had launched a particularly vitriolic attack on Nigel Barrage. I didn’t make the connection.

Anyway, Mr Carswell is now a Ukipper, and about to stand in that role for Clacton. Given that means an immediate by-election, one might place a bet on him becoming UKip’s first MP: he has a majority of 12,000, and it would take an awful lot of defections (plus zero UKip support) to overturn that.

Something for Camerlot to think about.

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1

John Ward on September 1, 2014 at 5:29 pm

I stand corrected, apologies.

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2

Eric Blair on September 1, 2014 at 1:13 pm

Carswell is not and has never been a Rhodesian/Zimbabwean.He lived in Uganda for awhile with his parents and educated in Kenya.He was born in Westminster,London.

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3

rtj1211 on August 31, 2014 at 6:01 pm

I think it was created to stop war in Western Europe primarily. It couldn’t do anything to affect Eastern Europe so long as Comintern Pact existed. Russia preserved ‘peace’ at the point of tanks and wet affairs for 45 years. Still no sign of the Germans killing the French again. However, I guess old Adolf started by going East and made his big mistake by antagonising people beyond breaking point by going west.

I think you’ll find that Ukraine war is being fomented by the USA and the EU is the equivalent of Mussolini, doing what he is told. Europe has far too much business interests in Russia to be the prime mover in Ukraine. The USA has naff all, so all its ‘sanctions on Russia’ are equivalent to banning condoms in nunneries. In Europe it’s like banning them in whorehouses. Slight difference with profoundly different outcomes……

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4

rtj1211 on August 31, 2014 at 5:57 pm

Actually the current Coalition represents the most people, however imperfectly, of any administration since the 2nd world war. There has never been a majority obtained by one party in a General Election. Not since 1945..

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rtj1211 on August 31, 2014 at 5:54 pm

Not unless UKIP voted against the Government in a No Confidence debate. They might decide not to do that, if they thought that their vote share would increase right the way up to May 2015.

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rtj1211 on August 31, 2014 at 5:52 pm

Is it the Tories or is it the House of Commons??

After all, Labour + Liberal equals a majority in the HOC, so if you wanted to be ethnic about it, they could move it unless my knowledge of constitutional law is awry……

Clearly, the LDs doing that would put a piranha in the coalition swimming pool, but I’m sure the justification would be that democracy must not be delayed for party political purposes…….

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7

OyiaBrown on August 31, 2014 at 12:02 pm

Reblogged this on Oyia Brown.

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8

Maxter on August 29, 2014 at 11:22 am

+1

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9

jdseanjd on August 29, 2014 at 10:45 am

:)

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10

DomesticExtremist on August 29, 2014 at 3:16 am

“Was not the EU, in it’s earliest guise, an attempt to end all future wars in Europe?”

No, that was NATO, but they’re busy doing their best to lose that appellation in Ukraine.

The EU emerged out of a businessmen’s efforts to set up pan-European Iron and Steel
cartels which eventually grew into the EEC and the bureaucratic monster it is today.

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11

Kenny Jenkins on August 28, 2014 at 9:32 pm

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/28/ukip-clacton-carswell-roger-lord

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12

Mark Deacon on August 28, 2014 at 7:35 pm

Time and again over the last few decades politicians renaged on promises, failed to deliver and feathered their own nest in all parties, those currently elected and those who will be elected in the future.

Not voting on the grounds their is no accountability like an MP championing keeping post offices open for popular support and then when it came to the vote … thry voted the other way.

Not one of them has been held to account for this or for the financial position the nation finds itself.

Now Carswell is one of these wether he stands for the Tories or UKI just like the rest of them in parliament.

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13

Skirmish on August 28, 2014 at 6:52 pm

Correct if me I’m wrong about this.
Was not the EU, in it’s earliest guise, an attempt to end all future wars in Europe?
Yet the very same EU, in alliance with the USA have now helped to create war at the Eastern fringe of the continent.
It has therefore very obviously failed in this and many other respects and the people of the continent realise that.
Good luck to Carswell who has the courage to back his beliefs by trusting the electorate to decide his fate. Other MP’s and leaders take note.

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14

Robin Banks on August 28, 2014 at 6:03 pm

Just hope UKIP can get Peter Davies to stand in Doncaster North and now we are talking.

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15

Bernard from Bucks on August 28, 2014 at 5:45 pm

Good for you Gordie, and welcome. I don’t believe any vote is wasted. Vote for what you want and what you believe in.
I agree we are up against a ‘dead cert’ with Mr Grieve but you could always lend a hand in Aylesbury where UKIP do stand a very good chance.

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16

tibbles on August 28, 2014 at 5:36 pm

Cameron ,or should I say the Conservative government came to power with 36.1% of the vote. Laughably we have a deputy prime minister whose party gained only 29% of votes cast. Almost 35% of our citizens did not vote. Yes I know that you know this!
This is proof that the corrupt party system, and even more so, the “first past the post” system is not fulfilling the roll of electing a representative government. Stop rambling on about the Tories versus UKIP, it does not matter, what counts is changing the system.

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17

Funandgames on August 28, 2014 at 5:30 pm

Oh, that’s funny ;) Farage will be up against a former Ukipper (actually UKIP leader) in South Thanet, who jumped ship to the Tories in 2005.

Do you remember that old playground game “Red Rover, Come Over”? (i know this is going to be meaningless to anyone under 40, but bear with me). One by one, each member of the two teams tries to race across to the other side, beating their rival. Eventually, the cry goes up “All Change”” and both sides rush across the playground to change positions. Someone should just shout “all change” and the Tories can scramble into the UKIP sector of the playground and the Ukippers into the Tory one. Last one over is “IT”!

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18

pete fairy on August 28, 2014 at 5:25 pm

Well who gives a sh*t which party gets in next time? I certainly don’t. They are all fully paid for, and therefore fully owned, by the powers that be. Including UKIP. Representative democracy is a joke now. Their theoretical job is to represent our views to power. But they do the exact opposite, they represent the powers that be views to us.

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19

Kenny Jenkins on August 28, 2014 at 4:31 pm

Just heard on the radio that UKIP had already chosen their candidate for Clacton – he’s not at all happy about Carswell or, possibly, Farage.

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20

Gordie on August 28, 2014 at 3:44 pm

For the first time in my life I will not be voting Tory and voting UKIP . While I don’t agree with everything they stand for Cameron and the Eton mafia are hopeless . My vote will be wasted as Dom Grieve is our mp and will romp home despite alienating most of Stoke Poges through his inaction over the Khalsa free school but c’est la vie

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21

Impoverished Psychologist on August 28, 2014 at 3:16 pm

Indeed, ANYTHING that annoys, confounds or discomforts Cameron is a source of comfort for me.

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22

OAH on August 28, 2014 at 3:12 pm

Farage reckons there are 10 to 15 possibilities they are talking to in the present Parliament.

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23

Anon on August 28, 2014 at 2:56 pm

But it would be self-defeating, since if enough of them left then the Government could lose a vote of confidence and they would all then have to re-apply for their sinecures.

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24

ralfellis on August 28, 2014 at 2:41 pm

.
And if Carswell wins, then who will jump next?

There are many likeminded Tories out there, fed up with Camoron’s infantile “6th form common room” fantasy politics. And if one ‘prisoner’ demonstrates that the tunnel is open and viable, who will be next out of the Tory prison-camp? Or even, out of the Labour prison-camp. There will be plenty of escape tunnels to chose from – Tom, Dick or even Harry.

Interesting times.

Ralph

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25

ralfellis on August 28, 2014 at 2:33 pm

Interesting.

UKIP has never done well in Parliamentary elections, because our first-past-the-post system always favors established parties. Nobody wants to waste their vote on a no-hoper small party, so the small party never grows to challenge the establishment.

However, once a small party does become established, through willing a substantial majority in the EU elections, and possibly by a well-known figure winning a by-election – suddenly, all bets are off. If the electorate think UKIP have half a chance of winning a seat at the general election, they will have no worries about wasting a vote and letting in “another hated party”. And I phrase it that way, because in doorstep polling for UKIP it is surprising how much ex-Labour support there out is. In fact, there is often more ex-Labour support than ex-Tory support.

UKIP is not simply an “old Thatcherite Tory party”. Instead, it is a cross-pary party, that has broad appeal to all voters except for Lib-Dems (but they are a selbsthass lost cause anyway). There are millions of ex-Labour voters out there, who think that Blair deliberately undermined their salaries and undermined their jobs with cheap foreign labour. And they have not forgiven Labour for that betrayal of basic Labour principles and loyalties.

I reckon that Carswell’s gains will be 40% Lab and 60% Tory, and he will romp home with a substantial win. And he will thereby forever change the face of British politics.

Well done that man…. :-)

Ralph

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26

The False Paste on August 28, 2014 at 1:47 pm

‘suddenly blocked me on Twitter…’
you do flatter youself…he didn’t block just you – he wanted to do the deal without Twitter knowing his plans in advance.

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27

OAH on August 28, 2014 at 1:38 pm

Good for Duggie’s UDI. Don’t always agree with him but he has coherent views as befits a good Rhodesian.

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28

Douglas Carswell ExitsThe Tories, Will Stand For Clacton In By-Election – 28 August 2014 | Lucas 2012 Infos on August 28, 2014 at 1:21 pm

[…] Read the full story at: http://www.rt.com / link to original article […]

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29

chrisb on August 28, 2014 at 1:09 pm

‘Carswell … has a majority of 12,000, and it would take an awful lot of defections (plus zero UKip support) to overturn that.’

You are making the highly questionable assumption that the voters voted for Carswell and not for the Tory party. I suspect that the by-election may be very volatile for a number of reasons. Many Tory voters will be initially undecided on whether to follow Carswell. Labour voters will switch to UKIP in order to give the Tories a bloody nose. UKIP will attract many protest voters, who will return to their parties in 2015.

Then there is a fundamental question. Will Cameron really fight the seat? The risk to him from doing so and losing is immense. There must be the temptation to write it off as a typical by-election protest vote from the start, to stay in Downing Street and leave it to his minions to wave the Tory flag.

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Caratacus on August 28, 2014 at 1:04 pm

Stand by for a series of muck-raking stories about Carswell, some dating back to his schooldays, and a general cascade of similar bollocks. Cameron’s arse must be fluttering like a poppy in the breeze at the moment and I am grateful to Carswell for that. It’s time that CMDs chops were given a bit of a wake-up slap :-)

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31

BillK on August 28, 2014 at 12:44 pm

Apparently Carswell was told by UKIP that UKIP was a dead cert to win Clacton.
So he decided that the best way to keep his seat was to switch to UKIP.
(Like many Tories will do – voters and politicians).

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32

cherie79 on August 28, 2014 at 12:38 pm

At least he had the courage of his convictions by standing down most are not so honourable. I think he is wrong but then apart from a few things I am not a great UKIP fan.

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33

tedtreen on August 28, 2014 at 12:32 pm

“…Something for Camerlot to think about…”

Think about?

What with?

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34

Anon on August 28, 2014 at 12:29 pm

Before the by-election can take place, the Tories have to pass the writ for it, although they would not want to indefinitely delay it for fear of being called chicken.

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PaulC on August 28, 2014 at 12:19 pm

Bravo Carswell – takes a bit of backbone to leave the Augean stable. BTW, John, your last three articles on the overthrow of law were exemplary.

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