John Ward election realities

ELECTION POLLS: when the denialism had to stop

DSCN0276

Owen Jones and Nigel Farage may well be sharing tears in their beers on December 13th

¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤

The company Electoral Calculus has just produced this prediction of the likely outcome on 12th December:

Electpoll2.PNG

Health Warning: The brand name Calculus may have wonderful scientific overtones, but this is a poll of polls prediction. All pollsters use varying measures and weightings, and differ in the way they phrase questions…as well as the interview medium used: phone, online or face-to-face.

All that said, this is a mind-concentrating table for the enthusiastic denialists in the Labour and Brexit Parties.

There are three key points:

  1. Despite the Tories having lost 5 points of support since 2017, the Labour vote has collapsed by a third
  2. Despite a doubling of the LibDem popular vote, the Party would still have only 25 seats in the new Parliament
  3. On a rule-of-thumb basis, it looks like more than twice as many votes are being stolen off the Labour Party by the Faragists than are leaking from the Tories.

Personally, I do not buy into the 150 odd overall majority being projected for the Conservatives. I suspect Brexit Party support is understated, and the degree of organised ‘standing down’ between LibDem, Green & Labour will add more seats to the Remainer tally.

But as I have written consistently since the declaration, on December 13th there will be many tears and much wrenting of garments by TBP and Labour.

I will feel sorry for the Brexiteers. But I am going to have a ball taunting Owen Jones and the Momentum Trots.