ELECTION POLLS: when the denialism had to stop


Owen Jones and Nigel Farage may well be sharing tears in their beers on December 13th


The company Electoral Calculus has just produced this prediction of the likely outcome on 12th December:


Health Warning: The brand name Calculus may have wonderful scientific overtones, but this is a poll of polls prediction. All pollsters use varying measures and weightings, and differ in the way they phrase questions…as well as the interview medium used: phone, online or face-to-face.

All that said, this is a mind-concentrating table for the enthusiastic denialists in the Labour and Brexit Parties.

There are three key points:

  1. Despite the Tories having lost 5 points of support since 2017, the Labour vote has collapsed by a third
  2. Despite a doubling of the LibDem popular vote, the Party would still have only 25 seats in the new Parliament
  3. On a rule-of-thumb basis, it looks like more than twice as many votes are being stolen off the Labour Party by the Faragists than are leaking from the Tories.

Personally, I do not buy into the 150 odd overall majority being projected for the Conservatives. I suspect Brexit Party support is understated, and the degree of organised ‘standing down’ between LibDem, Green & Labour will add more seats to the Remainer tally.

But as I have written consistently since the declaration, on December 13th there will be many tears and much wrenting of garments by TBP and Labour.

I will feel sorry for the Brexiteers. But I am going to have a ball taunting Owen Jones and the Momentum Trots.